Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Memphis, TN

198 
WWUS54 KMEG 140307
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1007 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ARC035-037-123-140330-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-140414T0330Z/
CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
1007 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL ST. FRANCIS...EASTERN CROSS AND NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN
COUNTIES...

AT 1007 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF GALILEE...OR
NEAR MARKED TREE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE...
FORREST CITY...MADISON...PALESTINE...PARKIN...WYNNE...MONTEREY...
COLTON...TOGO...COLDWATER...TWIST...L'ANGVILLE...MC ELROY AND
FITZGERALD CROSSING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 9051 3491 9068 3491 9103 3496 9102
      3499 9100 3501 9100 3515 9093 3544 9061
      3544 9029 3526 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 232DEG 45KT 3552 9046

$$

486 
WWUS54 KMEG 140329
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1029 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ARC035-037-123-140339-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-140414T0330Z/
CRITTENDEN AR-CROSS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
1029 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ST. FRANCIS...EASTERN
CROSS AND NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM
CDT...

AT 1029 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
AND WEAKENED. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

.CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUTURE WARNINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR YOUR AREA.

LAT...LON 3515 9051 3491 9068 3491 9103 3496 9102
      3499 9100 3501 9100 3515 9093 3544 9061
      3544 9029 3526 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 232DEG 45KT 3569 9019

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
657 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY CANCELLATION.

DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE PAST TWO
HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TAKING PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE
EXPECTED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE BACKED AT THE SURFACE AND A STRONG 50 TO 60 KT MID-
LEVEL WESTERLY JET WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
FORCED LINE OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SPECIFICALLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING LATE MORNING TO
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 1000 TO
NEAR 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL BE ON HAND...ALONG WITH LI/S -6 TO
-8C...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 60KTS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW EVENING. ALL OF
THESE PARAMETERS AND THE LOCATION OF LOW WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...VERY COLD AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE 30S...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH
TO FEND OFF ANY FROST FORMING OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY. FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
BE WHAT DEVELOPS INSTEAD.

BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S
DURING THE DAY AS STRONG CAA WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL DAY LONG.
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP OFF VERY QUICKLY. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S
AND MANY PLACES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S. A FREEZE WARNING
WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE AND A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING RAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-SOUTH.

.THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN BY LATE SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND
BACK TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS ARKANSAS SHOULD
SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING AND IMPACT KJBR BEGINNING EARLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN KMEM AND KMKL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR
CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR WITH THIS BAND OF CONVECTION. LATE
TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT
KTUP WITH MVFR CIG REDUCTIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END LATER
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
ENDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KTS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED TO COVER THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMING FOR CONVECTION AT EACH
TERMINAL. IFR CIGS EARLY SHOULD RECOVER TO MVFR PRIOR TO THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 10-12 KTS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS SHOULD BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH A LOWERING BACK TO LOW END MVFR CIGS. SOME IFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT
THIS TIME. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
430 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-142330-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
430 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TONIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. A SECONDARY THREAT OF A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY MORNING AND A
FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AC3