Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH
A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S CAPES WERE RISING INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. USING THE HRRR OUTPUT SEE MORE SCATTERED
RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. GFS/NAM HAVE
SUGGESTED MORE ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE OCTOBER DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
STRONG. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAINFALL IS THEN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
ON THURSDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL BECOMES ENHANCED
PROXIMAL TO A SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN
QUESTION...HOWEVER WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE IN TEMPERATURES AND
CONSISTENT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WAITING FOR FUTURES MODEL RUNS BEFORE PLACING MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

 BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

SHRA/TSRA NEAR TUP EARLY...WITH REGENERATION LATER TONIGHT AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. FEEL THAT MKL AND TUP WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER ON STATION...WITH VCTS AT MEM AND JBR FOR NOW. CIGS/VIS
WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR WEATHER IN HEAVIER CONVECTION.
STILL POSSIBLE THAT AN MVFR LAYER WILL ROLL IN TOWARDS SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY AFTER. THIS DECK WOULD LIKELY LIFT BACK TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL START OFF SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

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