Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH
A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S CAPES WERE RISING INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. USING THE HRRR OUTPUT SEE MORE SCATTERED
RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS A STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. GFS/NAM HAVE
SUGGESTED MORE ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND THE OCTOBER DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION IS NOT
STRONG. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAINFALL IS THEN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WE CATCH A
BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
ON THURSDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL BECOMES ENHANCED
PROXIMAL TO A SLOW MOVING WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN
QUESTION...HOWEVER WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE IN TEMPERATURES AND
CONSISTENT RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CONSERVATIVE WAITING FOR FUTURES MODEL RUNS BEFORE PLACING MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS FRONT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

 BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

SHRA/TSRA NEAR TUP EARLY...WITH REGENERATION LATER TONIGHT AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES. FEEL THAT MKL AND TUP WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER ON STATION...WITH VCTS AT MEM AND JBR FOR NOW. CIGS/VIS
WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR WEATHER IN HEAVIER CONVECTION.
STILL POSSIBLE THAT AN MVFR LAYER WILL ROLL IN TOWARDS SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY AFTER. THIS DECK WOULD LIKELY LIFT BACK TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL START OFF SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 14 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1117 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-071215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1117 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM HARRISBURG TO HAYTI TO TIPTONVILLE....COVERING ALL OF WEST
TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF EASTERN ARKANSAS.
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
421 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

MSZ003-004-014-062145-
BENTON MS-UNION MS-TIPPAH MS-
421 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLUE MOUNTAIN AT 421 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN BENTON...TIPPAH AND UNION COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR NEW ALBANY AND RIPLEY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 8875 3475 8876 3475 8872 3463 8872
      3450 8879 3444 8879 3450 8924 3478 8918
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 261DEG 29KT 3460 8904

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
514 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HAIL             DUMAS                   34.64N 88.84W
10/06/2014  E1.75 INCH       TIPPAH             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LOCAL MEDIA RECEIVED SEVERAL PICTURES OF GOLF BALL SIZED
            HAIL IN DUMAS

&&

JPM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
529 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

MSZ006-009-017-062315-
TISHOMINGO MS-PRENTISS MS-ITAWAMBA MS-
529 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS LOCATED
10 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANDY SPRINGS AT 529 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA...PRENTISS AND TISHOMINGO COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR TISHOMINGO STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8817 3438 8855 3448 8854 3463 8847
      3462 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 281DEG 28KT 3452 8849

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
744 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

MSZ016-017-023-024-070130-
MONROE MS-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-CHICKASAW MS-
744 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS LOCATED 6
MILES WEST OF SHANNON AT 745 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CHICKASAW...ITAWAMBA...LEE AND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR FULTON...TOMBIGBEE STATE PARK AND VERONA...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO
INCLUDES BAY SPRINGS LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3436 8817 3429 8817 3406 8820 3401 8883
      3420 8882 3443 8816 3436 8816
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 253DEG 21KT 3412 8873