Severe Thunderstorm Warning 267, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. ONE MCS HAS MOVED ACROSS WRN KY/SE MO INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NE AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS
JUST SOUTH OF I-40 FROM SELMER NORTHEAST TOWARD LEXINGTON
INCLUDING JACKSON.

STORMS ARE FEEDING ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S...CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -7C TO -8C. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG WITH
MID LEVEL AT ABOUT 30 KTS...BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS MO
BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE MCS OVER NE AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

TONIGHT...MCS WILL DEPART INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THAT POINT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE WITH A DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 WITH A DRIER...COOLER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE LOW...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUMMER HEAT TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 594 DM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. STILL THINK THE MEX IS TOO HOT
WITH ITS UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
LAUNCH AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MIDSOUTH SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS
DECREASING AS THEY ENTER INTO THE REGION. ADDED VCTS FOR KJBR AND
KMKL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO I
ADDED VCTS AT KTUP. FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KTUP AND KMKL DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
EACH TAF SITE BEGINNING WITH KJBR AROUND 00Z.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-242200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
300 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF EASTERN ARKANSAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE SECONDARY
THREAT FROM THE STORMS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS AS WELL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
240 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARAGOULD               36.06N 90.51W
07/23/2014                   GREENE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGH WINDS BLEW TACO BELL SIGN ONTO HIGHWAY 412 NEAR
            PARAGOULD ALSO ROOF DAMAGE..TILES AND SHINGLES BLOWN OFF
            NEARBY HOMES NORTH OF JUNCTION OF HIGHWAY 49 ON HIGHWAY
            412.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
241 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND GST     PARAGOULD               36.06N 90.51W
07/23/2014  M62 MPH          GREENE             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

TLSJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
306 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE JONESBORO         35.83N 90.65W
07/23/2014  M58.00 MPH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   ASOS

&&

TLSJR

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