Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
348 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE FRONT
STRETCHED FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE
AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE REACHED SEVERE LIMITS AND THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS SOUTH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID
SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT
AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION BREAKS DOWN. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH IN THE FLOW ALOFT
AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH A RETURN OF NORMAL SUMMER HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE INTRODUCED
VCTS WORDING AT 19Z AT KMEM AND KMKL. WILL CONTINUE VCTS WORDING AT
KTUP. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT. BEHIND
FRONT...EXPECT NW WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO 8-10 KTS AFTER 14Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-032300-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
351 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 THIS AFTERNOO AND THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

JLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     LIGHTNING        ETOWAH                  35.73N 90.23W
07/01/2014                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** 16 OLD KILLED BY LIGHTNING IN CHURCH
            PARKING LOT

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1057 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     LIGHTNING        OSCEOLA                 35.70N 89.99W
07/01/2014                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUNICIPAL AIRPORT BURNED BY FIRE CAUSED BY LIGHTNING

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             SCOBEY                  33.93N 89.88W
07/02/2014  E1.00 INCH       YALOBUSHA          MS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN SCOBEY.

&&

AJC