Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1204 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

.UPDATE.../ISSUED 1132 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/

MINOR UPDATES TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING BUT REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW AREAS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP
TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT CONSIDERING THE ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING WERE MADE.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014/

TODAY...CURRENT SURFACE FRONTAL PLACEMENT BARELY DISCERNIBLE FROM
OBS AS A FEW DIFFERENT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS HAVE PASSED THROUGH
THE REGION. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN MISSOURI DRIER AIR IS ON ITS
WAY...BUT IS NOT LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES UNTIL LATE TODAY AS THE IMPRESSIVE DISTURBANCE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA SWINGS THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS...A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 2/3 THIRDS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...NOT INFLUENCED BY THE FRONT BUT MORE FROM THE
REMAINING CLOUD COVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEWPOINTS
WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO 70F FROM I-40 SOUTH YIELDING AFTERNOON CAPE
VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND LI'S OF -6C TO -9C. SO A FEW STORMS MAY
GENERATE A STRONG WIND GUST.

BY THIS EVENING MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LIFT/ENERGY WILL
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH
LOWERING DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 60S.

THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALL THAT CAN BE SAID IS FANTASTIC! ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS...AND NEAR PERFECT HUMIDITY. EXPECTING
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S OVER THE EAST. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AFTERNOON RH'S WILL REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE...AND WITH A FURTHER BUILDING OF
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REVERT BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S. A WEAK WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...COUPLED WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE
AFTERNOON POP-UP STORMS OVER THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE INTRODUCED
VCTS WORDING AT 19Z AT KMEM AND KMKL. WILL CONTINUE VCTS WORDING AT
KTUP. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT. BEHIND
FRONT...EXPECT NW WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO 8-10 KTS AFTER 14Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
322 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-031030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
322 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS SOUTH TODAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     LIGHTNING        ETOWAH                  35.73N 90.23W
07/01/2014                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** 16 OLD KILLED BY LIGHTNING IN CHURCH
            PARKING LOT

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1057 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     LIGHTNING        OSCEOLA                 35.70N 89.99W
07/01/2014                   MISSISSIPPI        AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUNICIPAL AIRPORT BURNED BY FIRE CAUSED BY LIGHTNING

&&

JPM