Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
214 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ADDED PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE TO THE
CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND EXTENDED THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...NOT MUCH TO ADD
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS CURRENT STORMS
ARE ON GOING IN A RICH 4000+ J/KG AIRMASS OVER THE DELTA.
APPROACHING LINE NOW CROSSING LITTLE ROCK HAS HAD A HISTORY OF WIND
DAMAGE...AND MODELS SHOW THE COMPLEX REMAINING SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AS
IT INTERSECTS THE WEST- EAST CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA...SO SEVERE
WEATHER TO INCLUDE FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH SUNSET. A FEW
MORE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MCS ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL STILL BE POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE SATURDAY
NIGHT DEVELOPING A 1008MB SURFACE LOW AND TRACKING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL IN-TURN PUSH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...PROVIDING US WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREAT. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ACROSS
THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER TEXAS
IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
WAVE GETTING CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. THIS
NEW LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER FOR THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH FLOODING AND A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL FILL AND BECOME
SHEARED OUT EARLY THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. AT
THE SAME TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AT LEAST KEEP A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH LESS
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR 90F.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE

CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR AND TO VFR
BY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING EXCEPT AREAS OF FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

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