Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS Memphis, TN

115 
WGUS74 KMEG 280207
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
907 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MOC155-TNC095-131-280217-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0073.000000T0000Z-140628T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAKE TN-OBION TN-PEMISCOT MO-
907 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN
PEMISCOT...WESTERN OBION AND LAKE COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3650 8914 3625 8936 3630 8986 3639 8987
      3641 8959 3635 8955 3635 8953 3638 8952
      3644 8955 3650 8952 3650 8948 3647 8948
      3646 8946 3650 8942

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
349 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
STILL INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE AS SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

EXISTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS TENDED TO RE-GENERATE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
FOR THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AS
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. SHORT
TERM MODELS HAVE INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUS...HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER RAISING POPS UPWARD ACCORDINGLY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IF THE 00Z MODEL RUN SHOWS AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TYPE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF
BREAK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. HIGHS FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE
90S. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING MAINLY RAIN FREE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (27/18Z-28/18Z)

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OCCASIONALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD EVEN DROP TO IFR
DIRECTLY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. BY
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER MID-MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH 8-12 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SOUTH DECREASING TO 3-8
KTS. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH BECOMING 8-12 KTS.

JCL
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-281045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
333 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM