Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Memphis, TN

683 
WGUS74 KMEG 270257 RRA
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
957 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

ARC093-MOC069-155-270307-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-140627T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-MISSISSIPPI AR-
957 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN PEMISCOT AND SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3621 8966 3618 8962 3616 8959 3613 8959
      3609 8968 3603 8969 3600 8973 3599 8972
      3596 8972 3593 8967 3593 9011 3621 9011

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
654 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS BEGINNING TO
ROTATE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE MOSTLY
IN THE 80S WITH AN EXCEPTION OF A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE RAIN SHOWERS HAD PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES CHANCES EACH DAY IS THE PREDOMINANT FORECAST
CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER TEXAS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. WENT WITH LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SCATTERED
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME...THINK RAIN CHANCES MAY DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND OPTED TO GO WITH SCATTERED POPS
EVERYWHERE.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID SOUTH EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...LATEST LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
TRY TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY WEAKEN
ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT
TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS NEXT WEEK
WILL BE WARMER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 90S THROUGH MID WEEK AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL COVERING THE AREA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THUS HAVE CONTINUED A VCTS
THROUGH 27/03Z AT ALL SITES...AFTER 03Z HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND PRESENCE OF
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BUT KMEM...THUS HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED VISBYS AND
CIGS. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE AN ISSUE AT KMEM...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY
GET INTO MVFR CRITERIA AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...BUT WAS NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. VCTS INCLUDED BEGINNING
AT 27/15Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-271100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
346 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.