Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.  TEMPERATURE GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

 BELLES

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY JUNE TRACKING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS GIVES US CAUSE FOR ATTENTION.  FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL OVERSPREADING OUR FORECAST
AREA.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ENHANCED
SHEAR CAUSES A CONCERN FOR A TORNADIC POTENTIAL INTO THIS
EVENING.

ON TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LINGERING UPPER LOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.  THE CHANCE SHOULD
FINALLY END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

ON THURSDAY WE MAY CATCH A BREAK FROM THE RAIN...HOWEVER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HEATING AS
ONE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES JUST EAST OF OUR AREA...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THAT NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.  BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT INTO OUR REGION...NEVERTHELESS WITH HIGH SOIL MOISTURE
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.

 BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR..MVFR... AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE 24
HOUR TAF CYCLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MCS
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ALL SITES CAN
EXPECT TO RECEIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KJBR AND KMEM COULD EXPECT TO SEE VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDER AS
EARLY AS 18Z... KMKL AND KTUP AS EARLY AS 21Z. SHRA AND BR WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES WITH VISBYS GETTING AS LOW AS 5SM.
CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR LEVELS AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA
TOMORROW MORNING. VCSH AND VCTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TOMORROW BEOFRE
18Z BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL VERY LOW. WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE AND FROM THE SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JMP3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-101200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
225 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE IS HEIGHTENED
CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVE THROUGH THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
FEW TORNADOES.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN
ON TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STORM
SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
ARE URGED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.

JLH/JEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             1 SW HOUSTON            33.89N 89.01W
06/08/2014  E2.50 INCH       CHICKASAW          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VERY LARGE HAIL AT LEAST 21/2 INCHES AROUND THE TOWN OF
            PYLAND.

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W HOUSTON               33.90N 89.00W
06/08/2014                   CHICKASAW          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN WEST OF HOUSTON.

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E WALLS               34.95N 90.10W
06/08/2014                   DESOTO             MS   STORM CHASER

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ALONG TWIN LAKES AND IROQUOIS
            DRIVES. WATER REPORTED JUST BELOW KNEE DEEP. MINOR
            FLOODING OF NEARBY RESIDENCE.

1130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KOSSUTH                 34.87N 88.64W
06/08/2014                   ALCORN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MILD FLOODING THROUGHOUT COUNTY

1200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CORINTH                 34.94N 88.52W
06/09/2014                   ALCORN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MILD FLOODING REPORTED AROUND ALCORN COUNTY.

0115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CAYCE                   34.96N 89.62W
06/09/2014                   MARSHALL           MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            YARD STRUCTURE TWISTED AND MOVED A FEW FEET

0155 AM     TSTM WND DMG     OXFORD                  34.36N 89.53W
06/09/2014                   LAFAYETTE          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUPLE OF TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MICHIGAN CITY           34.98N 89.25W
06/09/2014                   BENTON             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING IN NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      RIPLEY                  34.73N 88.94W
06/09/2014                   TIPPAH             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL ROADS WASHED OUT AROUND TIPPAH COUNTY NEAR
            WALNUTM AND RIPLEY

0245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     7 E NEW ALBANY          34.49N 88.90W
06/09/2014                   UNION              MS   PUBLIC

            60 MPH WINDS ALONG WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

0330 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DENNIS                  34.56N 88.23W
06/09/2014                   TISHOMINGO         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 30.

0715 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ADAMSVILLE              35.23N 88.39W
06/09/2014                   MCNAIRY            TN   PUBLIC

            VIDEO RECEIVED OF WATER FLOWING OVER OVERBROOK DRIVE OFF
            OF HIGHWAY 64 IN ADAMSVILLE, TN.

0815 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CAYCE                   34.96N 89.62W
06/09/2014  M3.00 INCH       MARSHALL           MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            3.00 TO 3.24 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FELL SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

ZDM