Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist in
around KFST area through early evening. IFR conditions are also possible
in and near thunderstorms during the early evening. VFR conditions
are expected elsewhere.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A mid level moist axis stretching from nrn Mexico thru the Big Bend
and into the PB along with a shrtwv trof within moisture across
Mexico warrants chance PoPs this PM and at least into the early
evening in the Davis Mtn/Big Bend region. A secondary area of
interest is across the w/nw PB where tstms may eventually develop in
area of low level convergence along a weak dryline. High clouds are
limiting insolation and 12Z MAF sounding does show an elevated mixed
layer that will have to be overcome. 0-6km shear is weak so strong
multi-cell storms are favored, locally heavy rain is possible too
across the Trans Pecos. A rather prominent mid level theta-e ridge
axis will be a key feature across the area Tue/Wed with Mexican
moisture being tapped as the remnant shrtwv trof lifts across the
area Tue. We have opted to increase PoPs farther into the chance
category across the Trans Pecos Tue with local heavy rain possible.
More of the same Wed (chance PoPs) from Trans Pecos into the PB.
This axis may have to be adjusted, probably farther e depending on
mid level theta-e ridge/trof. Also wind fields will be more
favorable for severe storms Wed. ECMWF/GFS still show a weakness in
5h heights Thur warranting at least slight chance PoPs. Will have to
keep a watch on ECMWF into Friday as it aggressively develops a mid
level low across Mexico tapping into more moisture, which would
increase PoPs substantially across the Trans Pecos. GFS does this
too, but a little far e. Thereafter we've slowly downplayed PoPs.
Through this forecast cycle temperatures are not too much a concern
as abundance of clouds, higher dwpnts, precip, and se winds help
keeps temperatures near seasonal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
211 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-171200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
211 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 /111 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO.
A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH POSSIBLE AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
421 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

TXZ058-067-075-162215-
PECOS-WARD-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
421 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTH CENTRAL PECOS AND SOUTH CENTRAL WARD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM NEAR
COYANOSA...AND SOUTHWARD FOR 16 MILES...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3131 10311 3141 10306 3131 10282 3102 10290
      3097 10298 3121 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 200DEG 6KT 3121 10306

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HAIL             2 W FORT STOCKTON       30.89N 102.92W
06/16/2014  E1.00 INCH       PECOS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MILE MARKER 255 ON INTERSTATE-10

0454 PM     DOWNBURST        2 W FORT STOCKTON       30.89N 102.92W
06/16/2014                   PECOS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            4 POWER POLES DOWN BETWEEN MILE MARKER 255 AND 256. RV
            TURNED OVER

&&

PAT.VESPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     DOWNBURST        FORT STOCKTON           30.89N 102.89W
06/16/2014                   PECOS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES DOWN IN FORT STOCKTON

&&

PAT.VESPER