Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

130 
WWUS54 KMAF 172214
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

TXC377-172224-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-140617T2300Z/
PRESIDIO-
514 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 514 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAD WEAKENED.
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3015 10407 2988 10397 2976 10416 2980 10434
      2996 10441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 265DEG 13KT 2992 10420

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Generally southwesterly flow aloft expected through Thursday with
the surface trough expected across the extreme west Texas/eastern
New Mexico border. The westward position of the surface trough will
allow low level moisture to back all the way into the mountains
through the period. Intense heating along with an abundance of
shortwaves in the upper flow will spark widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and west Texas
through Thursday. A few storms will become strong to severe given
a cape forecast of 1000-3000 j/kg. The best chance of severe
storms will be Wednesday afternoon and evening when 0 to 6
kilometer shear values are forecast to be in the 25 to 30 knot
range. Will continue to mention locally heavy rainfall in the
hazardous weather outlook due above normal precipitable water
values. High temperatures will cool to slightly below normal
values through Thursday due to expected abundant cloudiness and
uptick in areal coverage of storms.

More storms are expected Friday due to an upper level trough
stalling over the Trans Pecos and Big Bend area. The best chance
appears like it will be across the mountains and Big Bend closest
to the disturbance with help from topography and upslope flow.
This disturbance is forecast to meander across the Trans Pecos
and Big Bend Saturday and Sunday so will keep a slight chance of
thunderstorms in those regions.

Beyond Sunday the GFS model weakens and moves the disturbance
east of the area while the ECMWF model keeps the disturbance
over west Texas and expands its precipitation shield. For
now will confine mention of precipitation to the Davis Mountains
and Marfa Plateau in upslope flow and continue to monitor.
For Temperatures next Sunday through Tuesday went with a split
between the warmer GFS and ECMWF given the uncertainty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  93  69  90  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              71  91  70  90  /  20  30  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                70  96  67  95  /  20  30  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  74  98  72  93  /  20  30  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  97  70  90  /  20  40  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  92  68  89  /  20  30  20  30
HOBBS NM                   67  93  66  90  /  30  30  20  30
MARFA TX                   61  88  60  83  /  30  40  30  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  92  71  89  /  20  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  71  91  71  90  /  20  30  30  30
WINK TX                    74  97  73  95  /  20  30  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
120 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-181830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
120 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 /1220 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH POSSIBLE AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
422 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

TXZ080-172215-
MARFA PLATEAU-
422 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARFA AT 421
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 67...10 TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF MARFA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 10409 2992 10406 2996 10448 3016 10450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 265DEG 9KT 3005 10436