Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
233 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Dryline is trying to tighten up this PM with CNM setting at 100/42
and MAF 92/63. A few storms have initiated in the lee of Davis
Mtns near Balmorhea and based on T/Td spreads the bases are high
and there strong gusty winds are possible. TTU WRF did a very good
job with this initial convection placement/timing. WRF tracks these
storms east across the Pecos Co thru the afternoon while developing
a few discrete cells near MAF (along the dryline) just before 00Z
and a few small cells in the nrn CWFA. Severe threat will be brief
with high based multi-cell storms.

Sun/Mon a dryline will be present with a stronger ewd push Sun into
the PB, but holding up in SE NM on Mon. Pattern will be such that
the mid level ridge is well to the s-se allowing for a w-sw mid
level flow. This implies that track for shrtwv trof/s will be favored
farther n in the stronger wsw mid level flow. Thus the storm potential
will primarily be dictated by the diurnal heating cycle/dryline
circulation and orographics (mostly Davis Mtns being the genesis
source). 0-6km bulk shear is not very strong and weakest across
the Trans Pecos. CAPES in proximity to dryline and weakest CINH
are progged by NAM12 to around 500-2000 J/KG. Thus, isolated
severe threat at best. Along and w of the dryline 85h temps will
be 30-32C Sun and 28-30C Mon. MOS confirms this with Sun looking
to be the hottest day. Isold to slight chance PoPs are already in
the forecast Sun-Mon, but Mon is the more favored day with better
low level mstr and potential for minor shrtwv trof in the n and
possibly one to the s. A key feature going forward will be the mid
level theta-e ridge and this will be another reason for convection
to initiate in the Davis Mtns/Big Bend regions. Convection
possibilities will be renewed Tue when mid level mstr/theta-e
ridge and an assocd shrtwv trof is spun off of Cristine (possibly
Mon). This will favor PoPs across the Trans Pecos, but especially
the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos, and possibly farther w and n
depending on track of shrtwv trof. Looking at climo of precipitable
water according to NAEFS/GEFS the PWs will be in the 75th percentile.
We will ramp up PoPs into the scattered/chance range across the
Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos on Tue for now. There is less confidence
in precip potential Wed with GFS keeping mid level flow backed and
ECMWF veering to w and pushing moist axis e. Pattern returns to
better agreement by Fri with mid level ridging and weak n-nw flow
aloft, which could yield some precip across the n and in the mtns.
Taking a quick look at the ECMWF extended forecast the subtropical
ridge will fully develop by next weekend and hold.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71 102  72  99  /  10  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              72  99  73  97  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70 103  71 102  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  75 102  74  97  /  20  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 101  72  98  /  20  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  92  68  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65 100  69  98  /  10  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   62  91  62  91  /  20  20  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73 100  73  97  /  20  10  10  20
ODESSA TX                  73 100  73  97  /  20  10  10  20
WINK TX                    73 104  74 101  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-151130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
223 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 /123 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

BRISK WINDS ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING FROM THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PERMIAN
BASIN, SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION,
AND INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND
IN WEST TEXAS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A GAIL...MIDLAND...MARFA...
PERSIMMON GAP LINE.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

TXZ075-142100-
PECOS-
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY AT 337 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL CROSS INTERSTATE 10 IN
BETWEEN FORT STOCKTON AND BAKERSFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3106 10253 3077 10247 3075 10283 3091 10286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 260DEG 12KT 3084 10272

HUFFMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

TXZ060-061-067-068-142230-
ECTOR-CRANE-WARD-WINKLER-
502 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHEASTERN WARD...NORTHWESTERN CRANE...SOUTHEASTERN WINKLER AND
SOUTHWESTERN ECTOR COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF WICKETT AT 502 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3203 10274 3177 10247 3151 10299 3167 10312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 237DEG 22KT 3164 10297

HUFFMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
521 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

TXZ075-082-142245-
PECOS-TERRELL-
521 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTH CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAKERSFIELD
AT 521 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3096 10223 3059 10222 3064 10259 3086 10261
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 267DEG 17KT 3075 10249

HUFFMAN