Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms moving off the higher elevation will track across
CNM and PEQ this evening... perhaps moving into INK and HOB. Very
gusty wind and small hail will be possible with these storms...
brief heavy rain could reduce visibilities into upper MVFR range.
May see low clouds move into MAF and HOB after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Quite a bit of moisture has backed up into West Texas this
afternoon as evidenced with 60s dewpoints at GDP. This has
increased instability, and daytime heating has caused convection
to develop in the mountains. There is sufficient shear in
southeastern New Mexico for discrete supercells to form with large
hail being the primary threat and strong winds the secondary
threat. The shear gets weaker further south into Texas but there
is usually a small area in the lee of the Davis Mountains where
low level horizontal vorticity is enhanced and so could see one or
two storms go severe between Alpine and Fort Stockton as well. The
GFS/ECMWF/WRF are indicating an MCS may develop later tonight in
southeastern New Mexico and roll into the Permian Basin. Have
increased PoPs tonight for this scenario.

Tomorrow a weak dryline/trough will push east into the Permian
Basin and will serve as a focus for more convection. Upper level
flow will become westerly tomorrow and become more southwesterly
through the period with below normal 500 mb heights for this time
of year yielding mid level lapse rates favorable for a chance for
convection into early next week. Timing of weak impulses with
daytime heating will play a factor in how much if any convection
develops so left PoPs below 15 percent past Monday.

Temperatures warm over the weekend with westerly upper flow, but
surface pressure falls will pull more moisture and cooler gulf air
back into the CWA as upper heights back next week. This will keep
highs at very reasonable levels for the extended period.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly flow will increase tomorrow, especially in the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains. Brief critical fire weather
conditions will be possible, but minimum afternoon humidities will
be near 15 percent so widespread conditions are not expected and
thus a watch will not be issued.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
144 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-141845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
144 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014 /1244 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS, THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS THIS
EVENING IS GENERALLY FROM LEA COUNTY INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
PERMIAN BASIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF THE TRANS PECOS
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN.

OTHERWISE THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
750 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW PECOS              31.36N 103.56W
06/13/2014  M59 MPH          REEVES             TX   ASOS

            MEASURED 59 MPH WIND GUST AT KPEQ.

&&

70

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
808 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

NMZ028-033-034-140145-
SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
708 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
EAST CENTRAL EDDY AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 24 MILES WEST OF EUNICE AT 708 PM
MDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
ARE POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 10314 3225 10310 3211 10324 3226 10374
      3255 10366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 281DEG 19KT 3236 10353

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