Tornado Warning 14, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
620 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR REMAINS OUT TO SEA FRIDAY AS IT
PASSES THE MID-ATLANTIC. FUR FURTHER INFO...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
DETAILS ON THE PATH OF ARTHUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRIMMED HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS NOT YET PASSED BY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW (BALTIMORE AND EASTERN DC).

AS OF 22Z...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A LEE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW
FROM EARLIER STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUE TO BE
THREATS. ONLY THE LARGEST STORMS ARE PRODUCING HAIL TO THE GROUND
ON THIS HOT AND HUMID DAY. WILL CONSIDER EXTENDING THE WATCH
BEYOND 8PM FOR SOME AREAS...WILL ASSESS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR WEST TONIGHT WITH ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR AREAS NOT WORKED OVER
THIS EVENING...SUCH AS NORTH-CENTRAL VA. WARM NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...CLOSE TO THE DEWPOINTS.

PREVIOUS...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A EASTWARD PROPAGATING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS TODAY...SFC WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO THE SW AND THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. TS ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAPE HATTERAS BEFORE
MOVING NE AND AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE TS AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF STRONG
CONVERGENCE. THE MID- ATLANTIC WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT JET THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MESOSCALE
BAND ALSO KNOWN AS A PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENTS...PRE...IS POSSIBLE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN AN AREA EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...1
TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS TS ARTHUR MOVES
FURTHER OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. NLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL GIVE RELIEF OF HUMID CONDITIONS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.

MOST OF THE REGION WEST OF I-95 SHOULD BE CLEAR COME SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL HANG AROUND EAST OF I-95 INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...THOUGH THE
ACTUAL RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL DEPEND MOSTLY ON THE TRACK THAT TC
ARTHUR TAKES UP THE COAST. SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITHIN OUR CWA AS THE TC PASSES TO OUR EAST...BUT BREEZY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS...THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THE NIGHT OF THE
4TH OF JULY SHOULD BE RATHER MILD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WORK
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WEAKENING OF WINDS...THOUGH TEMPS IN THE MID-80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT JULY DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE SUNDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. A DETERIORATING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY
CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TSRA CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN TSRA. WINDS WILL VARY FROM S-SW TO W THIS
EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO SW TONIGHT. TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM CHO- IAD-DCA-BWI-
MTN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AND MAY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ACTIVITY.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS EAST OF I-95 FRIDAY
MORNING IN LOW CEILINGS AS TC ARTHUR PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
OUTSIDE OF WINDY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN RISK FOR SPECIAL
MARINE WARNING STORMS IS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUED RISK
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RESULTING IN LOW VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND SOUTH OF DRUM PT THROUGH 6PM THURSDAY. FOR
THE REST OF THE MD CHESAPEAKE WATERS...A SCA IS DROPPED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TC ARTHUR PASSES OFF
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ011-013-014-
     016.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ055>057.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-
     538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>533-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ535-536.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/CEB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
612 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             FOREST HILL             39.59N  76.39W
07/02/2014  E1.25 INCH       HARFORD            MD   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400558

STRONG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
619 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             2 W BEL AIR             39.53N  76.38W
07/02/2014  E0.75 INCH       HARFORD            MD   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400559

STRONG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
622 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE BAKERTON          39.37N  77.74W
07/02/2014                   WASHINGTON         MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES ON CANAL TOWPATH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400560

STRONG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
635 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             SPERRYVILLE             38.67N  78.25W
07/02/2014  E0.88 INCH       RAPPAHANNOCK       VA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400561

STRONG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
643 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HAIL             1 SE SPERRYVILLE        38.66N  78.23W
07/02/2014  E0.75 INCH       RAPPAHANNOCK       VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400562

LEE

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