Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS St. Louis, MO

945 
WWUS53 KLSX 280030
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
730 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOC007-027-137-139-173-280045-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-140428T0045Z/
CALLAWAY MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-RALLS MO-AUDRAIN MO-
730 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AUDRAIN...
SOUTHWESTERN RALLS...MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND
NORTHEASTERN CALLAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 727 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANTA FE TO WILLIAMSBURG...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 70 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.  QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
         REPORTED IN THOMPSON AT 718 PM CDT.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARIS...SANTA FE...WELLSVILLE...VANDALIA...SHAMROCK...MARTINSBURG...
LADDONIA...PERRY...FARBER...BENTON CITY...RUSH HILL AND FLORIDA.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES MARK TWAIN LAKE RECREATIONAL AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9206 3946 9146 3915 9141 3886 9169
      3902 9212
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 195DEG 60KT 3936 9193 3896 9173

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

BRITT

685 
WWUS53 KLSX 280043
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
743 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOC007-027-137-139-173-280053-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-140428T0045Z/
CALLAWAY MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-RALLS MO-AUDRAIN MO-
743 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR AUDRAIN...SOUTHWESTERN
RALLS...MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND NORTHEASTERN CALLAWAY
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN ST LOUIS.

LAT...LON 3957 9206 3946 9146 3915 9141 3886 9169
      3902 9212
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 195DEG 60KT 3959 9185 3919 9165

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
644 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

Overview...A strong low pressure system over the Plains states
becomes negatively tilted aloft due to a shortwave moving through
the base of the trough, but models show that the system itself
becomes nearly stacked and doesn't move very much during the day
tomorrow after it moves into Nebraska later tonight. This feature
will strongly influence our weather tonight and tomorrow, bringing a
couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
be strong to severe. According to the models, the system doesn't
really move eastward again until Mon night when complex interactions
occur between this system and a retrograding low over Ontario while
a strong jet rounds the base of the trough and then strengthens on
its eastern side. The cold front associated with this system should
move across the LSX CWA on Mon night with a secondary cold front
moving through the area on Tue night. The aforementioned system then
develops into a large and complex feature with multiple low centers
(including Fujiwhara interactions) and several vorticity channels.
This large feature will dominate our weather through the end of
the week as it slowly moves to the northeast.

Tonight...Ongoing line of TSRA is expected to move through the CWA
this afternoon and tonight in a mixed convective mode, and
environmental parameters remain sufficient for strong to severe
thunderstorms at times through the evening hours. One area of
concern with respect to the forecast is that the parent cyclone
will be occluding and slowing tonight. New convective development
could be less progressive, leading to areas of heavy rainfall
across southern MO. However, flash flood guidance is rather high
and the threat for flash flooding appears to be localized rather
than widespread, therefore no flood watches or flash flood watches
are planned at this time.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

Mon...Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Mon ahead of
the approaching cold front/dryline. Favorable environmental
parameters for severe weather include H7-H5 lapse rates of 7-8 deg
C/km, 0-6km bulk shear of 40-70 kts, and at least 1000 J/kg of
CAPE. The greatest threat appears to be across the eastern half of
the CWA during the afternoon hours when this area will be beneath
the left exit region of an upper jet streak.

Tue through Thu...With cold temperatures aloft creating steep lapse
rates, cyclonic flow aloft, multiple shortwaves rotating through the
trough, and fairly low freezing levels, this looks like a good
pattern for diurnally-driven afternoon SHRA/TSRA with small hail.
Pcpn coverage should diminish quickly after sunset each day. Expect
daily temperatures to be 10-15 degrees cooler than average during
this period.

Fri through Sat...Although the approximate center of the large
upper low is forecast to have moved north and east of MO/IL by
Fri, models show that a broad trough remains in place with several
shortwaves moving through the flow. These disturbances could
support SHRA/TSRA at times.

Kanofsky
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

First round of activity has exited taf sites. New activity has
fired up over central and southern MO and is tracking to the
northeast. Will see storms over KCOU through about 02z-03z
timeframe, then activity to move into rest of taf sites after 03z.
Most of activity to move out by 06z-07z. Otherwise, main issue
will be the winds. To persist from the southeast to south gusting
to near 25 kts at times, veering to the southwest by Monday
afternoon after cold front moves through. Timing and coverage of
activity ahead of front still hard to pin down, so just have vcnty
shower mention after 17z Monday. As for cigs, only have brief
mention of mvfr/ifr cigs/vsbys for tafs this evening with next
round of activity, otherwise vfr conditions.

Specifics for KSTL:
First round of activity has exited taf sites. New activity has
fired up over central and southern MO and is tracking to the
northeast. Will see activity to move into the metro area after
03z. Most of activity to move out by 06z. Otherwise, main issue
will be the winds. To persist from the southeast to south gusting
to near 25 kts at times, veering to the southwest by 23z Monday
afternoon after cold front moves through. Timing and coverage of
activity ahead of front still hard to pin down, so just have vcnty
shower mention after 17z Monday. As for cigs, only have brief
mention of mvfr/ifr cigs/vsbys for KSTL this evening with next
round of activity, otherwise vfr conditions.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
357 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             NEW HAVEN               38.61N  91.22W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND...REPORT RELAYED VIA FOX2

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
651 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             ASHLAND                 38.77N  92.26W
04/27/2014  E0.25 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
653 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             JEFFERSON CITY          38.57N  92.19W
04/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BEGAN AT 645PM...LASTED 3 TO 5 MINUTES

&&

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
706 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             HOLTS SUMMIT            38.64N  92.12W
04/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE...LASTED 4 MINUTES

&&

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
708 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     HAIL             6 E NEW BLOOMFIELD      38.72N  91.97W
04/27/2014  E0.25 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
710 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             1 E NEW BLOOMFIELD      38.72N  92.07W
04/27/2014  E0.88 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP