Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS St. Louis, MO

138 
WWUS53 KLSX 272354
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
654 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOC027-051-151-280015-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-140428T0015Z/
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-
654 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
OSAGE...EASTERN COLE AND CALLAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 650 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TAOS...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.  HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
         REPORTED ON THE EAST SIDE ON JEFFERSON CITY.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLTS SUMMIT...FULTON...LAKE MYKEE...NEW BLOOMFIELD...CHAMOIS...
WAINWRIGHT...BONNOTS MILL...FRANKENSTEIN...TEBBETTS...MOKANE...
GUTHRIE...STEEDMAN...CARRINGTON AND REFORM.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES CLARKS HILL/NORTON HISTORIC SITE AND JEFFERSON
LANDING HISTORIC SITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 9225 3865 9222 3872 9221 3873 9219
      3874 9220 3874 9218 3875 9219 3881 9214
      3887 9215 3886 9216 3896 9213 3890 9165
      3828 9194 3847 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 205DEG 49KT 3856 9205

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

BRITT

946 
WWUS53 KLSX 280016
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
716 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOC027-051-151-280025-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-140428T0015Z/
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-
716 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN OSAGE...EASTERN COLE
AND CALLAWAY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS JUST BE ISSUED FOR CALLAWAY 
COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM CDT.

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN ST LOUIS.

LAT...LON 3861 9225 3865 9222 3872 9221 3873 9219
      3874 9220 3874 9218 3875 9219 3881 9214
      3887 9215 3886 9216 3896 9213 3890 9165
      3828 9194 3847 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 205DEG 49KT 3857 9204

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
407 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

Overview...A strong low pressure system over the Plains states
becomes negatively tilted aloft due to a shortwave moving through
the base of the trough, but models show that the system itself
becomes nearly stacked and doesn't move very much during the day
tomorrow after it moves into Nebraska later tonight. This feature
will strongly influence our weather tonight and tomorrow, bringing a
couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
be strong to severe. According to the models, the system doesn't
really move eastward again until Mon night when complex interactions
occur between this system and a retrograding low over Ontario while
a strong jet rounds the base of the trough and then strengthens on
its eastern side. The cold front associated with this system should
move across the LSX CWA on Mon night with a secondary cold front
moving through the area on Tue night. The aforementioned system then
develops into a large and complex feature with multiple low centers
(including Fujiwhara interactions) and several vorticity channels.
This large feature will dominate our weather through the end of
the week as it slowly moves to the northeast.

Tonight...Ongoing line of TSRA is expected to move through the CWA
this afternoon and tonight in a mixed convective mode, and
environmental parameters remain sufficient for strong to severe
thunderstorms at times through the evening hours. One area of
concern with respect to the forecast is that the parent cyclone
will be occluding and slowing tonight. New convective development
could be less progressive, leading to areas of heavy rainfall
across southern MO. However, flash flood guidance is rather high
and the threat for flash flooding appears to be localized rather
than widespread, therefore no flood watches or flash flood watches
are planned at this time.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

Mon...Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Mon ahead of
the approaching cold front/dryline. Favorable environmental
parameters for severe weather include H7-H5 lapse rates of 7-8 deg
C/km, 0-6km bulk shear of 40-70 kts, and at least 1000 J/kg of
CAPE. The greatest threat appears to be across the eastern half of
the CWA during the afternoon hours when this area will be beneath
the left exit region of an upper jet streak.

Tue through Thu...With cold temperatures aloft creating steep lapse
rates, cyclonic flow aloft, multiple shortwaves rotating through the
trough, and fairly low freezing levels, this looks like a good
pattern for diurnally-driven afternoon SHRA/TSRA with small hail.
Pcpn coverage should diminish quickly after sunset each day. Expect
daily temperatures to be 10-15 degrees cooler than average during
this period.

Fri through Sat...Although the approximate center of the large
upper low is forecast to have moved north and east of MO/IL by
Fri, models show that a broad trough remains in place with several
shortwaves moving through the flow. These disturbances could
support SHRA/TSRA at times.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

A deep area of low pressure aloft and at the sfc will cause
widespread precip thru this evening. Both lows are centered over
the cntrl plains and are not expected to move much over the next
24 hrs. A warm front extends across nthrn MO and SE into cntrl and
sthrn IL. Sctrd SHRAs/TSTMs continue to dvlp across the area in
vcnty of the front and in advance of a more significant band of
TSTMs that will affect the terminals later this aftn. The timing
of this band has been moved up a couple of hrs based on current
radar trends. In assoc with the early aftn convection...IFR VSBYs
can be expected if one of the cores impacts a terminal along with
gusty winds and small hail. The band now moving thru wrn MO will
likely produce IFR VSBYs as it passes. Some of the stronger storms
will be capable of producing strong winds and hail. Expect a 2-4
hr window of precip as this feature moves thru. This activity
should move east of the terminals by midnight with clearing skies.
Another round of SHRAs/TSTMs is possible along and east of the MS
rvr beginning as early as late Monday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Sctrd convection continues to dvlp near the terminal. VCTS seems to
cover the threat attm...but a quick update may be needed this aftn
if anything pops up to the south of the terminal. This trend
should continue thru the aftn. The chances for precip increase
thru the aftn with SHRAs/TSTMs impacting the terminal during the
late aftn/early evng time frame for several hrs. Precip should
come to an end this evening with partial clearing overnight.
Another round of storms is possible for late tomorrow mrng and
into the early aftn.

2%

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
357 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
427 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             CLAYTON                 40.03N  90.96W
04/27/2014  E0.50 INCH       ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
439 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ILZ065-070-272230-
FAYETTE IL-MARION IL-
439 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND EASTERN
MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 437 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF HELM...OR 13 MILES EAST OF
SALEM...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  OMEGA...
  STEPHEN FORBES STATION...
  KINMUNDY...
  FARINA...

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT...
INTERSTATE 57 NEAR EXIT 135.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
518 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CENTERTOWN          38.62N  92.45W
04/27/2014                   MONITEAU           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ANCHORED ALUMINUM CARPORT UPLIFTED AND DESTROYED

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
607 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOZ049-059-062-072-272330-
CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-OSAGE MO-
607 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OSAGE...GASCONADE...
WESTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 605 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
RICH FOUNTAIN TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CUBA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LINN...
  OWENSVILLE...
  NEW HAVEN...
  BLAND...
  MOUNT STERLING...
  ROSEBUD...
  GERALD...
  DRAKE...
  BEAUFORT...
  SWISS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
627 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     HAIL             HICKORY HILL            38.40N  92.36W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
633 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOZ060-062-280015-
FRANKLIN MO-WARREN MO-
633 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 629 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF GERALD...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NEW HAVEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NEW HAVEN...
  WARRENTON...
  WRIGHT CITY...
  TRELOAR...
  TRUESDALE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CARNEY