Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS St. Louis, MO

226 
WWUS53 KLSX 272348
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
648 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

MOC051-151-272358-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-140328T0015Z/
COLE MO-OSAGE MO-
648 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL OSAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3850 9225 3860 9171 3831 9167 3831 9220
      3833 9220 3833 9221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 260DEG 44KT 3843 9193

$$

KANOFSKY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
635 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2014

A dynamic low pressure system will push rapidly across our
forecast area late this afternoon and this evening. Wind shear
params are quite favorable for strong to severe storms. However,
instability params are currently not as favorable as indicated by
the 18z SGF sounding. It shows a strong mid-level cap (CIN 315
J/kg) and lower instability available without much additional
surface heating.

Some clearing is developing about and hour or two before the line
of storms arrives, per satellite and radar loops. We will continue to
expect a line of convection to race through the area starting
between 4 and 5 pm for our western counties and reaching our
eastern counties by 10 or 11 pm. The primary hazards will be large
hail and damaging winds, especially the cap erodes sufficiently
for uninhibited updrafts.

Behind the line of storms and cold fropa, we should see some
clearing develop from west to east after midnight as steady NW
winds bring colder are to the region.

Shimon

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2014

Despite some sunshine on Friday the mixing of 850mb temps in the
2C to 8C range will keep highs around 50 north with around 60
south. Increasing clouds in the afternoon will indicate the
approach of the next low pressure system. That shortwave is
forecast to track just south of Missouri and Illinois, with
varying solutions in the 12z models as to how far north the
precipitation shield will extend Friday evening. The GFS and
Canadian GEM continue to be the most aggressive with the
northern extent, covering a majority of the LSX forecast area,
while the NAM and ECMWF just affect the southeastern third of the
area. We confined likely PoPs in th evening to the southeastern
areas where the best forcing for precip will most likely reside,
with chance PoPs in all but the NW third. After midnight Friday
night, the wave will quickly slide to the east and dry air will
help to limit the northern extent to areas southeast of St Louis.

Dry and cool conditions will return for Saturday as sunshine
prevails for much of the day. Surface ridging and steady height
rises aloft on Sunday will produce a noticeable warming trend, as
highs climb into the mid 60s to around 70. The mild conditions
will extend into Monday but precipitation chances will increase
Monday morning ahead of a cold front. Low pressure will track from
eastern Colorado to Iowa on Monday, as its trailing cold front
reaches western Missouri by 00z/7pm Monday. Moisture will be
limited this far south of the system, so precip coverage only
warranted chance PoPs for now. A few light showers may linger in
western Illinois Monday night, but most areas should see dry
conditions overnight.

The next in a long series of weather systems is projected to
arrive in the area late Tuesday night or Wednesday, as a warm
frontogenesis develops across our forecast area from SW to NE. Per
the GFS, low pressure will eventually track NE along that front
later Wed into Wed evening, increasing precip chances into the
likely category in the NW Wed afternoon and the SE Wed night.

Timing differences in the extended have prompted the inclusion of
chance PoPs as late as Thursday due to the ECMWF indicating a
delayed passage of low pressure along the front.

Shimon

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2014

Scattered strong-severe storms which moved through mid Missouri
earlier this evening have weakened as they push east and move into
more stable air. Now watching a growing line of new thunderstorms
which are along the cold front extending southwest from near KIRK-
KDMO-KNVD. This line of storms will push east across the area
this evening accompanied by gusty winds and a period of IFR-MVFR
flight conditions. With the expection of northeast MO and west
central IL including KUIN where MVFR cigs will persist, conditions
should improve to VFR in the wake of the cold frontal passage with
initially gusty west winds diminishing through the night.

Specifics for KSTL:

Gusty southerly winds and MVFR cigs will persist this evening. A
line of thunderstorms should move through the terminal in the
01-03z time frame. Hard to gage the intensity at this time and
have opted for primarily MVFR, but can't rule out a brief period
of IFR conditions. Conditions should improve to VFR in the wake
of the cold frontal passage around 07z, with west winds diminishing
through the night. VFR flight conditions expected to prevail
through the day on Friday.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-281100-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
311 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. THESE
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IN NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...IF
OBSERVED...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHIMON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
525 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 S MARION              38.62N  92.37W
03/27/2014                   COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL HALFWAY DOWN TO GROUND AND THEN QUICKLY
            DISSIPATED. SPOTTER LOOKING NORTH.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
530 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     WALL CLOUD       2 S ASHLAND             38.74N  92.26W
03/27/2014                   BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER LOOKING NORTH.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
542 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LAKE MYKEE              38.68N  92.10W
03/27/2014                   CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOOKING TO THE NORTH AND SEES A FUNNEL CLOUD IN
            DISTANCE.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
543 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     WALL CLOUD       COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
03/27/2014                   BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0539 PM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
03/27/2014  M0.75 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FGLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
613 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     WALL CLOUD       2 SW BRAZITO            38.43N  92.31W
03/27/2014                   COLE               MO   STORM CHASER

            SPOTTER LOOKING SOUTHWEST TOWARD ELDON.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             2 NE HICKORY HILL       38.42N  92.33W
03/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL RANGED IN SIZE FROM PEAS TO PENNIES.

&&

GOSSELIN