River Flood Warning 59, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
549 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014

.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014

Upper low currently over central Kansas will dip south into Oklahoma
tonight and then kick northeast along Old Route 66 through St. Louis
tomorrow and up to Chicago by Wednesday morning. Rain with isolated
embedded thunderstorms will develop and overspread the CWA from the
south this evening as 850mb warm front and associated low level
moisture convergence slowly lifts through the region.

Expect a dry slot to lift into the southern half of the CWA by
tomorrow morning with the more steady rain continuing across the
northern half of the CWA where the 850mb warm front stalls. Models
suggest that some partial clearing south of I-70 will lead to
around 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE developing ahead of the stacked low
pressure system. Expect additional showers and thunderstorms to
develop across the Ozarks and move east-northeast tomorrow
afternoon/evening.

Rain should slowly come to an end from west to east Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning as the area of 850mb moisture convergence
sinks back south toward the I-44 corridor in MO/and I-55 corridor in
Illinois as the system pulls away. Have maintained likely POPs
Tuesday night along this corridor, tapering them off on Wednesday
from west to east.

Expect most locations will see a basin average of 1.00 to 1.50
inches for the event.

Temperatures will show little diurnal change tonight and tomorrow
with the greatest potential for a warm up being across the eastern
Ozarks, southeast Missouri and southern Illinois where some sunshine
will peak through on Tuesday. Temperatures will return to near
normal values on Wednesday with less cloud cover and precipitation
coverage expected.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014

A strong shortwave moving along the United States/Canadian border
will drive a cold front south and through the area on Thursday with
a chance for some showers and thunderstorms to develop during the
afternoon.

Canadian high pressure builds into the Midwest Friday and Saturday
with lower dewpoints and seasonable temperatures forecast. Return
flow starts to bring a more typical summertime airmass back into
the region by Sunday with increasing chance of thunderstorms heading
into next Monday.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2014

Upper level low and associated surface low along the KS and OK
border will move slowly eastward through sourthern MO on Tuesday.
A wide band of light rain with embedded heavier showers was moving
northward into COU, and will move into the St Louis metro area
early this evening and into UIN late tonight. As the rain moves in
and saturates the lower levels of the atmosphere the cloud ceiling
will eventually drop into the IFR catagory in COU later this
evening, in the St Louis metro area around 06z Tuesday and in UIN
towards morning. Should be slight improvement to MVFR cigs Tuesday
afternoon, but periods of rain should continue with a brief
thunderstorm possible. E-nely surface winds may continue through
the forecast period in UIN and COU, but should become s-sely in the
St Louis metro area on Tuesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Light rain with embedded heavier showers will
move into STL early this evening. The cloud ceiling will gradually
lower into the IFR catagory around 06z Tuesday. The cloud ceiling
should rise into the MVFR catagory Tuesday afternoon with periods
of rain and a possible thunderstorm. Ely surface wind will
gradually veer around to a s-sely direction Tuesday morning.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  72  62  79 / 100  70  60  40
Quincy          63  67  62  78 /  70  70  60  30
Columbia        63  69  57  79 /  90  70  40  20
Jefferson City  64  70  57  80 /  90  70  40  20
Salem           64  74  63  76 / 100  70  60  40
Farmington      64  73  62  74 / 100  70  40  30

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
322 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
322 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

CVKING