River Flood Warning 57, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014

Quiet weather is in store for the day today as cold front that brought
the severe weather yesterday continues to dive southeastward. Front will
stall out well to the south of CWA over the lower Mississippi River
Valley with a weak ridge axis extending from north to south over our area.
Partly cloudy skies are expected with seasonable highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2014

(Sunday Night - Wednesday)

Active weather will return to the LSX CWA early to mid next week as
baroclinic zone shifts back northward and potent upper-level energy
dives in from the west/northwest as a closed low. Chances of showers
and storms will ramp up from the south beginning late Sunday night into
the day Monday. Showers and storms are likely areawide Monday night/Tuesday
as closed low moves into southwestern Missouri. Occasionally heavy rain
may be possible Monday night/Tuesday as NWP soundings show tall/thin
CAPE profiles and PWAT values over +2SD or near the 99th percentile of
climatology. A few stronger thunderstorms may also be possible as
CAPE values along/east of Mississippi River Tuesday afternoon are progged
to be between 1000 and 1500 J/kg with around 30 knots of deep-layer shear.
System will likely occlude by early Tuesday as low becomes vertically stacked
throughout the troposphere and will be very slow to move out of the region.
Area will still be affected by this system on Wednesday with lingering
PoPs/chances of showers and storms. Temperatures for the period will average
slightly above normal at night and below normal during the day due to copious
cloud cover and chances of rain.

(Thursday - Saturday)

Models diverge rapidly in the extended with the ECMWF being dry while the
GFS brings another complex of showers and storms through the area early
Thursday. Not confident in either solution this far out as both have
been consistent run-to-run. Therefore...did not deviate from the CR
extended initialization. Regardless...look for moderating temperatures...
especially for daytime highs back to above climatological norms.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2014

Primary concern is extent of MVFR stratus overnight. Metro area
TAF sites (KSUS, KSTL, KCPS) will probably experience several more
hours of MVFR until daybreak when diurnal mixing should cause cigs
to rise. MVFR cloud deck appears to have moved away from KCOU/KUIN
but brief periods of MVFR are possible over the next few hours. If
any areas experience clearing overnight, then fog will be possible
if winds become light. Northwest winds will gradually become
easterly by the end of the TAF period.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     81  67  76  66 /   5  20  50  90
Quincy          78  62  74  62 /   5  10  30  80
Columbia        79  63  72  63 /   5  30  80  70
Jefferson City  79  64  73  65 /   5  30  80  80
Salem           80  64  77  66 /   5  10  40  80
Farmington      79  63  73  65 /  10  30  70  90

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
435 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-090945-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
435 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GOSSELIN