Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2014

River Flood Warning 11, NWS St. Louis, MO

April 2, 2014Saint Charles County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Apr 2, 2014, 3:18 PM CDT for Saint Charles County, Missouri. It took effect at Apr 2, 2014, 8:12 PM CDT. It was in force for 52 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 2, 2014, 3:18 PM CDT (20:18 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 2, 2014, 8:12 PM CDT
Expired
Apr 5, 2014, 12:00 AM CDT
In force
52 hr
Issued by
NWS St. Louis, MO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Moderate

County Saint Charles County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 10 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Dardenne Creek at St. Peters (DRCM7).

Action stage
16 ft
Minor stage
18 ft
Moderate stage
20 ft
Major stage
23 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05514860, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

412 
WGUS43 KLSX 022018
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
318 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood 
warning for the following rivers in Missouri... 

  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters affecting St. Charles County

.This Flood Warning is a result of 2 to 3 inches of rain the past
24 hours and an additional 1 to 2 inches forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-032018-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0011.140403T0112Z-140405T0500Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.140403T0112Z.140403T1200Z.140404T0500Z.UU/
318 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* from this evening to late Friday night.
* At  3:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 22.0 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by early Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 22.5 feet...Near this level the agricultural levee 
  between the creek and Highway C becomes overtopped, flooding 
  Highway C and the cropland to the northwest of Highway C.
* Impact:  At 22.3 feet...Near this height, the Brown Road underpass 
  beneath the railroad bridge begins flooding at Brown Road Park.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Back yards begin flooding behind homes south
  of Mexico Road and along Oak Drive near this height.
* Impact:  At 20.7 feet...The right hand bank floods at the ball 
  fields at Sports Center Park.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The athletic fields at the Woodlands Sports 
  Park and at the Tony Glavin Soccer Complex begin flooding near this
  height.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...Outdoor exercise area at the St. Charles 
  County Animal Control begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 19.4 feet...Ball fields at Sports Center Park become 
  flooded.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...Lone Wolff Park begins flooding just south 
  of Main Street/Highway C, just west of St. Peters.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/03  04/04  04/05  04/06  04/07

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   15.19      22.0   14.5    7.9    5.3    4.3


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
9 follow-up statements
054 
WGUS83 KLSX 030255
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
955 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters affecting St. Charles County 

.This Flood Warning is a result of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall the 
past 24 hours and 1 to 2 inches forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-040255-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140405T0530Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.140403T0056Z.140403T1200Z.140404T0530Z.UU/
955 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

The Flood Warning continues for the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until late Friday night.
* At 9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 18.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The river is forecast to crest near 22.5 feet on  
  Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Residence north of Mexico Road begins 
  flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.5 feet...Near this level the agricultural levee 
  between the creek and Highway C becomes overtopped, flooding 
  Highway C and the cropland to the northwest of Highway C.
* Impact:  At 22.3 feet...Near this height, the Brown Road underpass 
  beneath the railroad bridge begins flooding at Brown Road Park.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Back yards begin flooding behind homes south
  of Mexico Road and along Oak Drive near this height.
* Impact:  At 20.7 feet...The right hand bank floods at the ball 
  fields at Sports Center Park.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The athletic fields at the Woodlands Sports 
  Park and at the Tony Glavin Soccer Complex begin flooding near this
  height.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...Outdoor exercise area at the St. Charles 
  County Animal Control begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 19.4 feet...Ball fields at Sports Center Park become 
  flooded.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...Lone Wolff Park begins flooding just south 
  of Main Street/Highway C, just west of St. Peters.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/03  04/04  04/05  04/06  04/07

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   18.08      22.5   14.8    8.2    5.6    4.6


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
121 
WGUS83 KLSX 030941
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
441 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...
 
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters affecting St. Charles County 

.This Flood Warning is a result of 3 inches of rain and an additional
2 inches of rainfall is expected through tonight...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavier rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this situation
and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-040941-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140405T0350Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.140403T0056Z.140403T1200Z.140404T0350Z.UU/
441 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until Friday. 
* At 4:00 AM Thursday the stage was 14.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast:  The river will again rise above flood stage this 
  afternoon and crest near 20.0 feet early this evening. 
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...Outdoor exercise area at the St. Charles 
  County Animal Control begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 19.4 feet...Ball fields at Sports Center Park become 
  flooded.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...Lone Wolff Park begins flooding just south 
  of Main Street/Highway C, just west of St. Peters.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/03  04/04  04/05  04/06  04/07

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   14.67      15.0   14.8    8.2    5.6    4.6


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
393 
WGUS83 KLSX 031142
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
641 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following creek in 
Missouri...
 
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters affecting St. Charles County 

.This Flood Warning is a result of 2-4 inches of rain the 
past 24 hours and around an additional inch forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-041141-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140405T1617Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.140403T0056Z.140403T1800Z.140404T1617Z.UU/
641 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* until Saturday morning.
* At 6:00 AM Thursday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The creek is forecast to rise back above flood stage late this 
  morning and crest near 22.8 feet this afternoon. Additional rises are possible.
* Impact:  At 23.0 feet...Residence north of Mexico Road begins 
  flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.5 feet...Near this level the agricultural levee 
  between the creek and Highway C becomes overtopped, flooding 
  Highway C and the cropland to the northwest of Highway C.
* Impact:  At 22.3 feet...Near this height, the Brown Road underpass 
  beneath the railroad bridge begins flooding at Brown Road Park.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Back yards begin flooding behind homes south
  of Mexico Road and along Oak Drive near this height.
* Impact:  At 20.7 feet...The right hand bank floods at the ball 
  fields at Sports Center Park.
* Impact:  At 20.5 feet...The athletic fields at the Woodlands Sports 
  Park and at the Tony Glavin Soccer Complex begin flooding near this
  height.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...Outdoor exercise area at the St. Charles 
  County Animal Control begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 19.4 feet...Ball fields at Sports Center Park become 
  flooded.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...Lone Wolff Park begins flooding just south 
  of Main Street/Highway C, just west of St. Peters.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/03  04/04  04/05  04/06  04/07

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   12.51      13.4   19.5   11.0    6.8    5.0


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
741 
WGUS83 KLSX 031638
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1137 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following creek in 
Missouri...
 

  Dardenne Creek at 

      St. Peters


.This Flood Warning is a result of 3-5 inches of rain the 
past 24 hours and around one additional inch forecast in the next 
24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-041637-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140405T0000Z/
/DRCM7.1.ER.140403T0056Z.140403T0150Z.140404T0000Z.UU/
1137 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* Until Friday evening.
* At 11:00 AM Thursday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The creek is forecast to crest just above flood stage this evening. 
  Additional rises are possible.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/04  04/05  04/06  04/07  04/08

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   13.67      13.7    9.2    6.4    5.1    4.4


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
467 
WGUS83 KLSX 032030
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following creek in 
Missouri...
 

  Dardenne Creek at 

      St. Peters 


.This Flood Warning is a result of 3-5 inches of rain the 
past 24 hours and around one additional inch forecast in the next 
24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-042030-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140405T0820Z/
/DRCM7.1.ER.140403T0056Z.140404T0600Z.140404T0820Z.UU/
330 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* Until early Friday morning.
* At 3:00 PM Thursday the stage was 17.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The is creek is forecast to rise above flood stage late this 
  afternoon and crest near 19.4 feet overnight tonight. 
* Impact:  At 19.4 feet...Ball fields at Sports Center Park become 
  flooded.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...Lone Wolff Park begins flooding just south 
  of Main Street/Highway C, just west of St. Peters.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/04  04/05  04/06  04/07  04/08

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   17.08      15.8   10.0    6.2    4.9    4.3


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
553 
WGUS43 KLSX 040143
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
843 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Major severity for the 
following river in Missouri...


  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters affecting St. Charles County


.This Flood Warning is a result of 3 to 4 inches of precipitation the 
past 24 hours and under 1 inch forecast in the next 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-050143-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140405T1956Z/
/DRCM7.3.ER.140403T0056Z.140404T1200Z.140404T1956Z.UU/
843 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Major severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 19.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet by 
  Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday 
  early afternoon.
* Impact:  At 20.0 feet...Outdoor exercise area at the St. Charles 
  County Animal Control begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 19.4 feet...Ball fields at Sports Center Park become 
  flooded.
* Impact:  At 19.2 feet...Lone Wolff Park begins flooding just south 
  of Main Street/Highway C, just west of St. Peters.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/04  04/05  04/06  04/07  04/08

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   19.71      23.0   10.2    5.6    4.8    4.3


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
240 
WGUS83 KLSX 041217
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
717 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following creek in 
Missouri...
 

  Dardenne Creek at 

      St. Peters 


.This Flood Warning is a result of around 5 inches of rainfall the 
past 72 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-051217-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140406T0338Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.140403T0056Z.140404T1121Z.140405T0338Z.UU/
717 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* Until Saturday evening.
* At 7:00 AM Friday the stage was 21.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The creek crested near 21.0 feet early this morning and is
  forecast to fall rapidly back below flood stage by this evening.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/05  04/06  04/07  04/08  04/09

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   20.99      14.7    9.7    7.0    6.5    6.1


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
939 
WGUS83 KLSX 041842
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
141 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following creek in 
Missouri...

 
  Dardenne Creek at 

      St. Peters 


.This Flood Warning is a result of around 5 inches of rainfall the 
past 72 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-051841-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140406T0600Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.140403T0056Z.140404T1121Z.140405T0600Z.UU/
141 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters
* Until late tonight.
* At 1:36 PM Friday the stage was 20.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The river is forecast to fall below flood stage late tonight.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/05  04/06  04/07  04/08  04/09

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   20.31      15.9    9.6    7.2    5.8    4.8


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
254 
WGUS83 KLSX 050332
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1032 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Dardenne Creek

     at St. Peters 

.This will be the final statement for this flooding event...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-050402-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140406T0600Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.140403T0056Z.140404T1121Z.140404T2152Z.UU/
1032 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters.
* At 10:00 PM Friday the stage was 12.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  4:52 PM Friday.
* Forecast:  The river will continue to fall to 5.1 feet by Sunday 
  morning.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     04/05  04/06  04/07  04/08  04/09

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   12.23       7.7    5.1    4.6    4.3    4.1


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 2, 3:16 PM CDT, 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 2, 3:16 PM CDT, 2 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

ARW core WRF models seem to have the best handle on what is
happening now and instilling the best confidence on what will happen
into tonight.  With that in mind, we are expecting the last of
today's convection to exit the southwest IL parts of the CWA by
22z.  Rainfall that has occurred has been hefty, on the order of
what we have not seen in quite some time, with the heaviest amounts
within about 50 miles on either side of the Interstate 70 corridor:
from 1.5" to 2.25" for most locations.  Needless to say, the
persistent rain has kept the warm front draped across southern MO
and far southern IL at a virtual standstill with temps very slow to
rise for our region.

The ARW core WRF models ignite a new round of TSRA late this evening
in central and northeast MO and then develops, matures, and then
advects what will probably become a new MCS thru the lion's share of
the CWA overnight.  Somewhat more instability will be available with
somewhat less bulk shear, but still sufficient, to support severe
potential to TSRA that develop.  A widespread one to two inches is
expected for much of the CWA, and when further compounded on what
has fallen and what is expected to fall thru Thursday night, basin
average rainfall amounts of 4-5" will be commonplace.  A FFA has
been issued for a generous slice of the CWA that tracks along where
the heaviest rainfall has occurred today and last night.

Temps should remain near steady tonight or slowly rise, depending on
where you are in relation to the warm front, with lo 60s expected
for areas south of I-70 and 50s to the north.

Spriggs

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

Ongoing precip from overnight convection assoc with WAA and the LLJ
will work to the NE thru the morning and should exit the CWA by
midday. This should allow for plenty of time for the atmosphere to
destabilize. Models indicate a strong trough moving into the region
during the day and becoming negatively tilted by evening. This is
expected to be the trigger for a significant svr wx event Thu
evng. The trough will provide strong forcing and mid level cooling
which is expected to produce lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km. A
warm moist bndry layer with temps in the 70s and Dps in the lower
60s will generate SBCAPE values of 1000-2500 J/kg from N-S. Shear
vectors approaching 40 kts and and at a favorable angle...convective
mode early on should be discreet supercells which should eventually
transition into a squall line. 0-1 SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2
should be sufficient for the threat of tornadoes...with this
threat continuing into the overnight hrs with the QLCS. All forms
of svr wx will be possible with this event. Storms should initiate
ahead of the cold front across wrn AR/MO either late in the aftn
or very early evng and should move into the FA around 6PM. The
line of storms should exit our ern zones around midnight or
shortly thereafter. The SFC low is fcst to move from ern KS on18Z
Thu to cntrl Lake MI by 18Z Fri.

Colder air filters in for the remainder of the night with a stiff
west wind that will continue thru Friday. SFC high passes overhead
Saturday morning providing ideal radiational cooling conditions. Low
temps Sat mrng are expected to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Quiet seasonable weather is fcst for the wknd.

Another system is scheduled to impact the region early next
week...but placement and timing issues keep POPs in the low chance
category attm. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal next
week as well.

2%

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

VFR conditions will be few and far between the next 24 hours, with
area of lo CIGs giving way to some extent late this afternoon and
early this evening only to return in force later tonight as warm
front continues its slow northward push. TSRA will come to an end
in STL metro between 19-20z with next round firing up later this
evening first in a COU-UIN axis and then pushing southeast toward
STL metro sites late tonight. Passage of warm front late tonight
and Thursday morning should signal end of this round of TSRA as
well as breaking up of lo CIGs.

Specifics for KSTL: MVFR conditions generally prevailing until
later this evening when stratus re-strengthens over area ahead of
final push of warm front. IFR CIGs to then continue until Thursday
morning after sunrise. Another round of TSRA expected late tonight
after the current round departs by 19-20z with some lingering SHRA
possible well into Thursday morning. Yet another round of TSRA set
for just beyond the valid period for Thursday evening.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Thursday night FOR Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
     Pike MO-St. Charles MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-
     Warren MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Thursday night FOR Bond IL-
     Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 2, 4:52 AM CDT, 10 hours 26 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
452 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
452 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BE SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME
OF THE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT MAY BE SEVERE.
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...IF OBSERVED...TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 2, 1:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
145 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     HAIL             MARYVILLE               38.73N  89.96W
04/02/2014  E0.50 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW QUARTER SIZE HAIL MIXED IN.

&&

DYE
Local storm report, Apr 2, 1:48 PM CDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     HAIL             EDWARDSVILLE            38.80N  89.97W
04/02/2014  E0.70 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED 2 MINUTES. TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR IS 2.82
            INCHES.

&&

FUCHS
Special weather statement, Apr 2, 2:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
216 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

ILZ064-065-069-070-022000-
BOND IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-MARION IL-
216 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CLINTON...EASTERN
BOND...SOUTHERN FAYETTE AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

AT 214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEAVER CREEK...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  VANDALIA...
  TAMALCO...
  MULBERRY GROVE...
  BOULDER...
  FAIRMAN...
  PATOKA...
  SHOBONIER...
  BROWNSTOWN...
  KINMUNDY...
  ST. ELMO...

THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT CARLYLE LAKE RECREATIONAL AREA.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
INTERSTATE 70 IN ILLINOIS FROM EXIT 41 TO EXIT 76.
INTERSTATE 57 NEAR EXIT 127.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

KANOFSKY
Special weather statement, Apr 2, 2:53 PM CDT, 25 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
253 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

ILZ065-070-022030-
FAYETTE IL-MARION IL-
253 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINMUNDY...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF SALEM...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FARINA...
  OMEGA...
  STEPHEN FORBES STATION...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

CARNEY
Local storm report, Apr 2, 2:58 PM CDT, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
258 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KIRKWOOD                38.58N  90.42W
04/02/2014                   ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOUTH FILLMORE AVENUE IS FLOODED NEAR EAST MONROE

&&

BRITT
Local storm report, Apr 2, 3:11 PM CDT, 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
311 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MARYLAND HEIGHTS        38.72N  90.48W
04/02/2014                   ST. LOUIS          MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            STREAM GAGE ON FEE FEE CREEK IN MARYLAND HEIGHTS FFCM7
            EXCEEDED THE 13 FOOT FLOOD STAGE AT 2...08 P.M. CDT.

&&

FUCHS

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 2, 7:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXBoone, Callaway47 min
Apr 2, 7:44 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXCallaway, Montgomery46 min
Apr 2, 8:26 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXCallaway, Montgomery49 min
Apr 2, 8:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXLincoln, Montgomery, Warren40 min
Apr 2, 9:47 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXCrawford, Franklin, Gasconade43 min
Apr 2, 10:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXFranklin, Jefferson45 min
Apr 2, 10:38 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXJefferson, Saint Louis52 min
Apr 2, 10:51 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLSXJefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis26 days
Apr 2, 11:02 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXJefferson, Saint Louis43 min
Apr 2, 12:13 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLSXLincoln, Saint Charles, Warren3 hr
Apr 2, 12:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXSaint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis50 min
Apr 2, 2:12 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLSXSaint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis4 hr
Apr 2, 3:07 PM CDTFlash Flood WatchLSXAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Crawford, Franklin and 14 more37 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2014Every river flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.