Areal Flood Advisory 2, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 654 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

Updating the forecast for this morning based on latest radar
trends. Will have categorical POPs march east along I-70 this
morning as convection to our west as the low level jet continues
to veer to the southwest. Could see an additional inch of rainfall
along this corridor.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

Expect ongoing TSRA to continue to move ewd this morning and shud
continue to back build into at least central MO if not further W
into wrn MO thru at least sunrise. TSRA over ern KS shud lift
enewd this morning and affect mainly the nrn half of the CWA.
These storms shud move ewd out of the region by this afternoon.
This shud leave the bulk of the afternoon, and perhaps the early
evening, dry.

A wrmfnt shud slowly lift nwd today, but clouds and precip will
help slow the nwd progression. The nwd progression of this fnt will
largely determine where the storms are likely to develop this
evening. This will also determine svr potential this afternoon and
tonight.

Believe elevated storms will form this evening and persist
overnight impacting the nrn half of the CWA. These storms shud
have a large hail threat given available elevated CAPE and shear.
S of the fnt, precip is more questionable. However, are some mdl
solns that suggest TSRA developing upstream of the CWA and moving
into the region overnight. Main question will be timing. The
threat with these storms will trend more twd wind, but also
include hail.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

Mdls continue to point to a widespread severe weather outbreak on
Thursday. TSRA shud be ongoing at Thurs morning, mainly over the
ern portions of the CWA. These storms shud move out of the region
quickly, leaving the bulk of the day dry. TSRA shud develop just w
of the CWA, or along the wrn fringes, late Thurs afternoon and
move ewd into the area. Progd hodographs show initial mode shud be
supercells, but shud eventually upscale into QLCS. Primary threats
will be tornadoes and large hail given the 30+ kts of 0-1 km shear
and SRH of 300+ Joules. This wud point to a threat of strong
tornadoes this eve as the LLJ ramps up. While the primary threat
will shift more twd damaging winds as storm mode changes to QLCS,
tornadoes will still be a threat given the strong low level shear.

Some question remains with sfc low track. Had originally
discounted the NAM, but 06z cycle is closer to other solns. While
the entire CWA will see a threat for svr wx Thurs night, believe
the primary concern will be for the srn half of the CWA.

Beyond Fri, cooler temps are expected. Generally trended twd a
blend of guidance given mdl differences. However, mdls are in
fairly good agreement with much cooler temps on Fri and Fri night.
Have therefore trended cooler. Kept POPs in the extd in the low
chance range given uncertainty.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

Active morning with IFR ceilings aligning north of I-70 from
central MO to northern STL metro. This was also the track of the
first round of showers and thunderstorms early this morning. Next
round taking aim on the I-70 corridor currently entering central
MO from KC area. Expect this to move east with rain along and
north of I-70 through this morning. Forecast for the remainder of
the late morning and afternoon is in question as model guidance
offers many different solutions. Instead of blindly guessing have
left forecast VFR and will let next shift look at 12Z guidance
before adding additional rain chances along I-70. Have opted to
add rain chances late tonight for KUIN given they should be north
of the warm front and have a higher chance of seeing elevated
convection.

Specifics for KSTL:

Narrow band of rain showers currently along Missouri River will
give way to better rain coverage as complex of showers and storms
over west central Missouri moves east. Can't rule out IFR
conditions slipping south into the terminal complex given its
current proximity. Will need to watch trends closely this morning
and amend as needed. Should see a break in precipitation late this
morning and afternoon. Warm front will try to lift north toward
the terminal, but unsure if it will make it until late tonight.
Have opted to keep forecast simple at this time and not add any
additional groups for precipitation given low confidence of its
evolution this afternoon and tonight.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     68  61  78  45 /  90  80  60  80
Quincy          54  50  71  38 /  80  80  60  80
Columbia        66  59  76  39 /  90  80  60  80
Jefferson City  68  61  76  40 /  80  80  60  80
Salem           66  61  75  52 /  80  80  60  80
Farmington      70  63  77  46 /  60  80  60  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
452 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
452 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BE SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME
OF THE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT MAY BE SEVERE.
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...IF OBSERVED...TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY

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