Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
122 PM EDT Tue May 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Tue May 27 2014

Only made a few minor updates to the near-term forecast this
morning. Most of the area is dry as the early morning precip pushed
into eastern KY. There are a few isolated cells along the KY/TN
border, but their pulse nature has them develop and diminish within
about 45-60 minutes. Latest guidance is still having a difficult
time with the evolution of showers and storms this afternoon. We are
starting to see some cumulus develop across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys under the thin cirrus. Current thinking is that there will
be isolated to scattered coverage later this afternoon and into the
early evening before convection tapers off. There is some agreement
amongst models that there will be another round of scattered
convection in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. This would be similar to
what was experienced this morning, but the location may be across
our southern CWA rather than the north. Will work these details out
once all the guidance arrives.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue May 27 2014

The upper level ridge across the area will flatten out and shift
eastward through the short term period as a cutoff low moves into
the ArkLaTex region. Multiple weak PV anomalies will traverse the
area through this upper level flow through tomorrow. This will lead
to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

For today, the models are somewhat split into two camps. One
develops mainly diurnally driven storms during the afternoon hours
across the area. The other has storms developing and moving north
across the area by mid morning, with lesser coverage during the mid
to late afternoon hours. Think the best time for storms today will
be late morning through mid afternoon, though likely there will be
some developing before/after this time frame as well. We should see
a lull in precipitation overnight with scattered storms developing
by mid day again tomorrow. Coverage looks to be slightly better
tomorrow than today, so will go with a bit higher pops tomorrow.

Winds continue to look fairly weak today and tomorrow, though there
will be plenty of moisture and instability. This will lead to pulse
type storms. As mentioned in previous discussions, with PWAT values
at or above 1.5 inches heavy rainfall will be one of the main
threats. If any storms train over any particular area, this could
lead to some localized ponding of water. Other threats will be gusty
winds and dangerous lightning.

Temperatures will be quite warm again today and tomorrow with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight will only drop back into the
mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue May 27 2014

An upper low over the Arklatex Wednesday evening will remain nearly
stationary and will gradually fill in over the remainder of the
week.  It will be replaced by upper ridging for the weekend.

The cold front sliding in from the north during the short term will
become very weak by the beginning of the long term, with a rather
diffuse surface pressure pattern in the OH/TN Valleys for the second
half of the work week.

GFS, EC, and GEM do agree on an upper level disturbance passing
through or near the region Thursday night.  This combined with a
possible surface boundary plus plenty of moisture and instability
will lead to thunderstorm chances in the forecast for the first few
periods of the long term.  Of all the chances for rain in the
extended, right now Thursday afternoon appears to be the likeliest
time.

We'll dry things out for most of the weekend as upper ridging takes
control.  By late Sunday we'll start to get into some return flow
behind surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic coast, and we
could see some isolated pop-ups Sunday afternoon in the Bowling
Green region.

Will continue chance PoPs into Monday as we get deeper into a warm,
moist, unstable atmosphere.  Also, MOS PoPs are above CLIMO which is
often a good signal for precip when that far out in the forecast
period.

Each day should generally see highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Tue May 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and last into the early evening hours. With the diurnal cu
development ongoing across the region will go ahead and add VCTS for
all TAF site through the afternoon and early evening hours. The
overall coverage remains uncertain, but current cu field and radar
returns would suggest LEX having the best chance of showers and
storms in the vicinity. Otherwise, this activity will wane after
sunset. More convection may develop after midnight and into the
pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Guidance is not completely sold on this
solution, which keeps confidence low enough to not mention precip in
TAFs at this time. If it does pan out, the better coverage appears
to be around BWG. South and southwest winds of 9-12 knots this
afternoon and evening will become light overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........MJP
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......13
Aviation.......MJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
130 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-281730-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
130 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014 /1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

MJP/13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
201 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

KYZ064-065-077-271930-
ADAIR KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-
201 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 200 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENSBURG TO 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF EDMONTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  GREENSBURG...
  COLUMBIA...
  CAMPBELLSVILLE...
  WHITEWOOD AND BLACK GNAT...
  MILLTOWN AND HASKINGSVILLE...
  BURDICK AND WRIGHTS...
  HATCHER AND SWEENEYVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 8552 3733 8553 3741 8520 3701 8521
      3700 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 247DEG 13KT 3724 8546 3705 8547

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

KYZ033-271940-
HENRY KY-
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA GRANGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  NEW CASTLE...
  EMINENCE...
  DELVILLE AND FRANKLINTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 8497 3836 8527 3837 8529 3843 8533
      3844 8533 3859 8509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 242DEG 16KT 3840 8528

RJS