Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Louisville, KY

882 
WWUS53 KLMK 271929
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

KYC087-271939-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-140527T1950Z/
GREEN KY-
229 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREEN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3716 8540 3719 8535 3723 8531 3724 8531
      3724 8530 3726 8527 3726 8522 3728 8519
      3712 8509 3708 8513 3707 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 233DEG 16KT 3716 8532

$$

KYC001-271950-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-140527T1950Z/
ADAIR KY-
229 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ADAIR
COUNTY UNTIL 250 PM CDT...

AT 227 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLUMBIA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OZARK...CANE VALLEY...COBURG...GARLIN...CRAYCRAFT...ABSHER...GENTRYS
MILL...CHRISTINE...HOLMES...PURDY...KNIFLEY...DUNBAR HILL AND ELLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 8540 3719 8535 3723 8531 3724 8531
      3724 8530 3726 8527 3726 8522 3728 8519
      3712 8509 3708 8513 3707 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 233DEG 16KT 3716 8532

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

RJS

615 
WWUS53 KLMK 271943
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

KYC001-271953-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-140527T1950Z/
ADAIR KY-
243 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADAIR COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 350 PM EDT/250 PM CDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...GUSTY 
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
VICINITY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LOUISVILLE.

LAT...LON 3716 8540 3719 8535 3723 8531 3724 8531
      3724 8530 3726 8527 3726 8522 3728 8519
      3712 8509 3708 8513 3707 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 233DEG 16KT 3720 8526

$$

RJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Tue May 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 27 2014

The upper level ridge across the area continues to flatten as a
cutoff low progresses toward the ArkLaTex region. Multiple weak PV
anomalies are projected to track across the forecast area in this
upper flow through tomorrow. This will lead to multiple chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
have developed across the region this afternoon. Not everyone will
receive rain, with coverage only being about 40%. Brief heavy rain,
small hail, frequent lightning, and wind gusts to around 45 mph can
be expected with the strongest storms.

For tonight, we should see this late afternoon diurnal convection
diminish in the early evening hours. However, as we have experienced
the past few mornings across the region, more isolated to perhaps
scattered convection should develop after midnight and in the
pre-dawn hours Wednesday. The better coverage looks like it might be
across our southern CWA. These showers and storms should diminish
and push east-northeast, then we wait for the Wednesday afternoon
development. With another PV anomaly passing by to our northeast and
a back door cold front approaching from Ohio, would expect more
diurnal convection in the afternoon and early evening hours with the
better coverage being across our north-northeast CWA. The PV anomaly
will push east and with the loss of afternoon heating, we should see
the coverage along this weakening front diminish Wednesday night.

Wind profiles continue to look fairly weak, though there will be
plenty of moisture and instability. Mainly pulse-type storms are
expected and will propagate or develop new cells on outflow
boundaries. Precipitable water values will increase to 1.5+ inches
by tomorrow. If any storms train over a particular area, then some
localized ponding of water or nuisance flooding will be possible.
Other threats will be gusty winds to around 45 mph and frequent
lightning.

Temperatures will remain quite warm, with lows tonight generally in
the middle to upper 60s. Highs of lower to middle 80s will be common
tomorrow afternoon, with temps dropping back into the 60s once again
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue May 27 2014

The long term guidance continues to be steady state in its range of
solutions.  The guidance suggests that the upper low over the lower
Mississippi delta region will gradually fill in during the early
portion of the forecast period.  As the low fills, it will
retrograde to the west and a strengthening upper level ridge axis
will replace it.

As all of this occurs, a surface cold front will slowly drift
southward through the region Thursday and Thursday night.  The
combination of the surface front and an upper level wave
transversing the area will result in more widespread convection
chances across our region.  Plenty of moisture along with
instability will be in place to support thunderstorm development.
An outbreak of severe weather does not look likely given the rather
weak wind fields aloft.  Instead, the main threat will likely be
heavy rainfall with the slow moving storms.  An inch or two of
rainfall will be possible in some areas...though basin averages will
probably average around an inch.

As the upper level ridge strengthens by late Friday, the front looks
to clear our area and settle down across Tennessee for the first
part of the weekend.  The trend in the data this afternoon suggests
that the ridge axis will push a little further to the east by Sunday
which will allow the stalled out front across Tennessee to push back
up into the region. This will probably result in an increase of
showers and storms once again by late Sunday afternoon.  However, it
appears that the best shot of rainfall Sunday would be across our
far south and southwest sections.

The upper level ridge looks to weaken/flatten out by early next week
as a band of upper level westerlies pushes in from the western
CONUS.  With the ridge breaking down, a diffuse boundary will likely
set up across the Ohio Valley.  Individual model solutions vary on
the placement, but the ensemble mean suggests that it could lie just
north of our region.  This will place our area in the notorious NW
flow regime with renewed convective chances for Monday and Tuesday.
In general, have kept the previous thinking intact for the later
periods and plan on staying close to climatological PoPs for the
period.

As for temperatures, Highs on Thursday will likely warm into the
lower to middle 80s.  Behind the front, we should see temperatures
fall into the lower 80s.  A little bit of a rebound in temperatures
look likely for Saturday with highs in the middle 80s.  Temperatures
look to remain above seasonal normals for Sunday through Tuesday
with highs in the 83-88 degree range.  Lows through the period will
generally be in the lower to middle 60s through Saturday morning,
but increase into the middle to upper 60s for Sunday morning through
Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Tue May 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and last into the early evening hours. With the diurnal cu
development ongoing across the region will go ahead and add VCTS for
all TAF site through the afternoon and early evening hours. The
overall coverage remains uncertain, but current cu field and radar
returns would suggest LEX having the best chance of showers and
storms in the vicinity. Otherwise, this activity will wane after
sunset. More convection may develop after midnight and into the
pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Guidance is not completely sold on this
solution, which keeps confidence low enough to not mention precip in
TAFs at this time. If it does pan out, the better coverage appears
to be around BWG. South and southwest winds of 9-12 knots this
afternoon and evening will become light overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........MJP
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........MJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
130 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-281730-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
130 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014 /1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

MJP/13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
201 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

KYZ064-065-077-271930-
ADAIR KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-
201 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 200 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENSBURG TO 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF EDMONTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  GREENSBURG...
  COLUMBIA...
  CAMPBELLSVILLE...
  WHITEWOOD AND BLACK GNAT...
  MILLTOWN AND HASKINGSVILLE...
  BURDICK AND WRIGHTS...
  HATCHER AND SWEENEYVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 8552 3733 8553 3741 8520 3701 8521
      3700 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 247DEG 13KT 3724 8546 3705 8547

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

KYZ033-271940-
HENRY KY-
308 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA GRANGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  NEW CASTLE...
  EMINENCE...
  DELVILLE AND FRANKLINTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 8497 3836 8527 3837 8529 3843 8533
      3844 8533 3859 8509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 242DEG 16KT 3840 8528

RJS