Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
714 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion and Forecast Update...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 712 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Went ahead and issued a Flood Watch for all but the southern tier or
two of counties across south central KY. Do think we will still see
lull in activity later this evening before the main line of storms
moves through. However, there is one more surge of showers and
storms to move across central KY and grounds have become saturated
due to previous rainfall. Have received a few reports of some minor
problems so went ahead and issued to the watch for this reason.
Could still see another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain before the event
ends midday to early afternoon on Friday. Will mainly keep an eye on
the flooding threat and a few stronger storms across the south this
evening. However, not ready to throw in the towel on a severe threat
tonight as there is still time for a warm sector to get established
ahead of the main squall line if we do indeed see a break in the
precipitation.

Issued at 617 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2014

A mess of convection continues across southern IN and north central
KY at this hour. Cold air outflow from convection continues to
battle against a warm sector that is trying to lift north, but
struggling to do so. Biggest problem for this evening is trying to
figure out whether this scenario is going to continue for some time
or whether we are about to see a lull in activity once this final
surge pushes off to the east. Will monitor over the next hour and
see if we start to shut off like anticipated. If not, may have to
extend the Flood Watch southeastward from its current placing.
Biggest concern for flooding still continue to be across southern IN
and north central KY later this evening and overnight. Still think
we could get a warm sector established across the area later this
evening if we do see a lull, so severe threat for damaging winds is
not off the table just yet.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Scattered showers and storms will continue to move through the
region late this afternoon and early this evening as we sit in a
warm, humid air mass with plenty of mesoscale boundaries around and
occasional convectively induced waves moving through overhead.
There still may be a break in the action during the mid to late
evening hours, though new convection developing over southern
Illinois this afternoon may through a wrench into that.

The much advertised squall line is still expected to move through
the region after midnight into the pre-dawn hours.  The severity of
the line is in question this far east as it becomes slightly
elevated.  Also, the atmosphere will have been plenty worked over
from previous convection.  Nevertheless, strong wind gusts will
still be a possibility as the low level jet revs up. The line will
be strongest over western Kentucky, then begin to weaken as it moves
east into central Kentucky.  The best chance for strong gusts will
be west of I-65...east of I-65 the low level jet will be weaker and
the line of storms should be weakening as well.

Several periods of convection have brought widespread rain to
southern Indiana and northwestern central Kentucky over the past
couple of days.  With additional rains tonight, possibly locally
heavy, have continued the Flood Watch and have expanded it slightly
southward.

The cold front will sweep through the region mid day Friday and will
usher in west winds gusting to 25-30 mph along with colder air.
High temperatures will likely be in the morning, with readings
falling slightly in the afternoon.

Friday night skies will clear and temperatures will tumble into the
middle and upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2014

High pressure will slowly build in across the region on Saturday and
shift east through the day on Sunday. Saturday through Sunday will
be dry. Mostly clear skies on Saturday will become partly cloudy on
Sunday as a system begins to approach from the southwest.
Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly below normal with highs in
the mid to upper 50s. Sunday will be a bit warmer despite the
increased cloud cover with highs in the low to mid 60s.

For Sunday night a low pressure system will form along the Gulf
coast and quickly move northeast across central Kentucky through
Monday. Rain will spread across the forecast area from the southwest
beginning late Sunday evening and continuing into the overnight
hours. Despite the models indicating portions of the area will be in
the warm sector as this low tracks northeast, there is little to no
instability, so thunderstorms seem unlikely. Precipitation should be
fairly widespread late Sunday through Monday and move out through
Monday night.

A deep trough will remain in place across the eastern CONUS Tuesday
through Tuesday night. A weak wave moving through the base of this
trough could bring some additional showers Tuesday. The trough will
then begin to shift off to the east and ridging looks to build in
behind it. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side with highs in
the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 708 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2014

A mess of showers and storms looks to impact SDF/LEX over the next
few hours where brief periods of lower MVFR or near IFR visibilities
will be possible, along with thunder. Southerly or southwesterly
winds will try to prevail where convection is not ongoing, however
expect variable winds for a couple of hours in the wake of
convection before southerly flow again takes over. Skies should stay
VFR outside of any shower or storms.

We may see a break in the action later this evening through through
the early morning hours. There is some question about that, though,
especially at SDF/LEX has cold outflow from storms keeps a boundary
in place and showers and storms continue to develop along it.

A squall line is still expected to move through the terminals during
the pre-dawn hours tonight. Timing will continue to be in question
until the line gets well organized. Previous forecast had a
reasonable time frame in place and will not change it at this time.

A cold front will sweep through the airports around lunch time on
Friday and will bring gusty winds along with it. WSW winds behind
the front may gust to 25 knots, especially if we can get some
sunshine in the drier air behind the front.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-077.

IN...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......BJS

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