River Flood Warning 15, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Scattered showers and storms will continue to move through the
region late this afternoon and early this evening as we sit in a
warm, humid air mass with plenty of mesoscale boundaries around and
occasional convectively induced waves moving through overhead.
There still may be a break in the action during the mid to late
evening hours, though new convection developing over southern
Illinois this afternoon may through a wrench into that.

The much advertised squall line is still expected to move through
the region after midnight into the pre-dawn hours.  The severity of
the line is in question this far east as it becomes slightly
elevated.  Also, the atmosphere will have been plenty worked over
from previous convection.  Nevertheless, strong wind gusts will
still be a possibility as the low level jet revs up. The line will
be strongest over western Kentucky, then begin to weaken as it moves
east into central Kentucky.  The best chance for strong gusts will
be west of I-65...east of I-65 the low level jet will be weaker and
the line of storms should be weakening as well.

Several periods of convection have brought widespread rain to
southern Indiana and northwestern central Kentucky over the past
couple of days.  With additional rains tonight, possibly locally
heavy, have continued the Flood Watch and have expanded it slightly
southward.

The cold front will sweep through the region mid day Friday and will
usher in west winds gusting to 25-30 mph along with colder air.
High temperatures will likely be in the morning, with readings
falling slightly in the afternoon.

Friday night skies will clear and temperatures will tumble into the
middle and upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2014

High pressure will slowly build in across the region on Saturday and
shift east through the day on Sunday. Saturday through Sunday will
be dry. Mostly clear skies on Saturday will become partly cloudy on
Sunday as a system begins to approach from the southwest.
Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly below normal with highs in
the mid to upper 50s. Sunday will be a bit warmer despite the
increased cloud cover with highs in the low to mid 60s.

For Sunday night a low pressure system will form along the Gulf
coast and quickly move northeast across central Kentucky through
Monday. Rain will spread across the forecast area from the southwest
beginning late Sunday evening and continuing into the overnight
hours. Despite the models indicating portions of the area will be in
the warm sector as this low tracks northeast, there is little to no
instability, so thunderstorms seem unlikely. Precipitation should be
fairly widespread late Sunday through Monday and move out through
Monday night.

A deep trough will remain in place across the eastern CONUS Tuesday
through Tuesday night. A weak wave moving through the base of this
trough could bring some additional showers Tuesday. The trough will
then begin to shift off to the east and ridging looks to build in
behind it. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side with highs in
the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 126 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2014

A line of convection has already passed through SDF and will cross
LEX and BWG around the start of the TAF period.  This line of storms
will bring some thunder (especially at LEX) and an abrupt wind shift
to the northwest as it passes through the terminals.  That will then
be followed by a few hours of rain but likely with VFR conditions.

We may see a break in the action late this afternoon through this
evening.  There is some question about that, though, especially at
SDF, as recent radar loops are showing redevelopment to the
northwest from eastern Missouri into southern Illinois.

A squall line is still expected to move through the terminals during
the pre-dawn hours tonight.  Timing will continue to be in question
until the line has actually formed, but went ahead and gave a stab
at it in this TAF package.

A cold front will sweep through the airports around lunch time on
Friday and will bring gusty winds along with it.  WSW winds behind
the front may gust to 25 knots, especially if we can get some
sunshine in the drier air behind the front.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ023>027-030>033-061.

IN...FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

Short Term........13
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........13

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
209 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

KYZ046-047-054-055-031835-
BOYLE KY-MARION KY-MERCER KY-WASHINGTON KY-
209 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL PEA SIZE
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...

AT 202 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEBANON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...
OCCASIONAL PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 TO 40 MPH...
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  SPRINGFIELD...
  HARRODSBURG...
  CORNISHVILLE AND CARDWELL...
  DUNCAN AND POTTSVILLE...
  BOHON AND DIXVILLE...
  JACKSON AND BRAXTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE
INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 8497 3760 8535 3784 8515 3787 8477
      3785 8477 3785 8476 3786 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 269DEG 32KT 3778 8511 3763 8524

TWF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
235 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

KYZ047-048-055-056-066-067-031905-
BOYLE KY-CASEY KY-GARRARD KY-JESSAMINE KY-LINCOLN KY-MERCER KY-
235 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  STANFORD...
  LANCASTER...
  HARRODSBURG...
  DANVILLE...
  NEEDMORE AND PARKSVILLE...
  DAVIS HILL AND CALDWELL MANOR...
  LITTLE NEEDMORE AND CLIFTON...
  MARCELLUS AND DAVISTOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 8450 3752 8504 3760 8504 3778 8490
      3784 8455
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 257DEG 44KT 3763 8497

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

KYZ055>057-067-031935-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-LINCOLN KY-MADISON KY-
305 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 302 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DANVILLE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 30 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  STANFORD...
  LANCASTER...
  DANVILLE...
  LITTLE NEEDMORE AND BONEYVILLE...
  HUBBLE AND HEDGEVILLE...
  GILBERT AND THREE FORKS...
  HYATTSVILLE AND POINT LEAVELL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 8444 3751 8486 3765 8483 3777 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 261DEG 37KT 3758 8478

SCHOETTMER