Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #275 has been issued for the southeastern
third of our CWA until 9 PM EDT this evening. The best threat for a
bowing segment/damaging winds will be across our far southeast near
the Lake Cumberland region where low level lapse rates are steeper,
combined with a more well mixed BL. This shows up with higher DCAPE
values in the mesoanalysis. An isolated supercell also cannot be
ruled out in the watch area, although any tornado threat will remain
very low due to unfavorable low level shear parameters and higher
LCLs in the more unstable airmass SE. If storms continue to struggle
under weak mid level lapse rates for the next couple of hours, the
severe threat will diminish and watch may be able to be let go
early. Furthermore, counties on the western fringe of the watch will
likely be let go early as the weak line of storms moves east and
stabilizes the environment.

Showers and storms should continue to lift NE at a fast clip ahead
of the mid level impulse. This will bring an end to the more
widepsread rain chances from SW to NE later this afternoon/evening.
Will continue to keep isolated to scattered precipitation chances in
the forecast overnight, however coverage intensity should be less.
After all, models have been overdoing QPF a lot to this point. Look
for a mild overnight with lows in the 65-70 range.

The closed upper low will open up as it heads into the Great Lakes
on Wednesday, with the surface low tracking across central IN and
weakening. The trough axis will remain to our west through the
afternoon/evening so do expect another mainly diurnally driven
uptick in convection later in the day. Best coverage should be
across the eastern CWA where numerous showers and scattered storms
are expected. With the amount of cloud cover expected over the area,
look for upper 70s to around 80 for highs.

The upper trough axis will swing through Wednesday night, with only
an isolated shower possible as we lose daytime heating. Lows should
again be mild in the 65-70 range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2014

Thursday the upper trough that is forecast to bring showers/storms
to the area today/Wed will be on its way out.  Showers with isolated
t-storms may linger mainly east of I-65 for the first portion of the
day before moving east.

Thurs night into Friday an upper level trough will move through the
region bringing a chance of isld-sct showers and t-storms.  This
shortwave upper trough will get stuck slowly meandering across the
Gulf states and TN valley through the weekend.  Depending on it's
exact location, it may bring enough forcing/moisture to our area to
cause more showers/storms.  However, it's tough to pin down that
location.  Also, previous runs of the ECMWF indicated that an upper
level ridge would attempt to build over the region lending toward a
drier soln.  The 12Z run of the ECMWF looks more similar to the GFS
giving a flatter flow with more upper level shortwaves progged to
move through the region at least through the beginning of next
week.  Both models try to strengthen the upper ridge toward the
middle of next week.  With the lack of continuity between model
runs, confidence in precip chances and temps this weekend through
early next week are not that great.   Therefore stuck with some dry
periods and limited POPs to 20-30% Sat-Tues.

Temps look to gradually increase through the long term period.
We'll start out in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs with the
upper trough near the region Thurs/Fri.  Temps will warm into the
mid 80s by the weekend and if/when the ridging comes in full force
we'll probably see highs increase to the upper 80s to around 90.
Low temperatures will range through the 60s...then low 70s as
ridging builds in.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2014

TAF sites are returning to VFR as the warm sector gets more
established over the area. However, the big concern will be shower
and storm chances later this afternoon and evening. A line of
showers and storms is beginning to organize to our south and will
move up into our area over the next several hours. BWG will be the
first to see showers and scattered thunderstorms with the best
timing between 2 and 6 PM CDT. SDF should expect the best time for
showers and scattered t-storms between 4 and 8 PM EDT. The best
timing for LEX would be between 5 and 10 PM EDT. Certainly,
conditions could drop into the low MVFR or IFR range with any storm.
In addition, some stronger winds gusts and heavy rain are possible.

Confidence is low as we move into the overnight, however low VFR or
high MVFR ceilings are expected, with scattered showers and a few
storms lingering. Chances for another round of -tsra look to go up
around dawn on Wednesday as another upper level disturbance moves
through. Winds should generally stay from a southerly direction
during this forecast cycle, with variations of about 30 degrees east
or west of south.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........BJS

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