Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
701 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FM NW TO SE THIS AFTN AS A SFC FRONT
AND UPPER TROF PROGRESS EAST ACRS THE AREA. CARRIED PREVAILING
SHRA AT ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTN...WITH TEMPO GROUPS EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR GUSTY WINDS...THUNDER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
VISBY/CIGS LOWERING TO IFR DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP...CIGS SHOULD BE VFR WITH VISBYS
HOVERING AROUND THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. KEPT PROB30 GROUPS FOR
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WITH VC THEREAFTER AS ISOLTD TO SCT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SWLY AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME VRBL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING AS IT
APPROACHES THE I-10 CORRIDOR.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

..HEAVY RAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS
BRINGING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE ON THE 18/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH WAS AT 2.25
INCHES OR ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT. SINCE
THEN...LATEST GPS-MET DATA...SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2.4 AND 2.5 INCHES...WHICH IS NOW
TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION...DEFINITELY NEEDED FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT. LIFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...IS TAPPING INTO THE MOISTURE...PROVIDING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND SO
FAR AS OF 3:30 AM...THE KLCH ASOS HAS RECORDED 2.65 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH AROUND 2.25 INCHES IN THE LAST 1 1/2
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHERE LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST. AGAIN...PROGS KEEP PWAT VALUES OVER 2.25
INCHES WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT DURING THE DAY.
THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS AREA WIDE BETWEEN 1 1/2 AND 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. INHERITED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND WILL KEEP THAT
GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO DRAG DOWN
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS...SO SOME ISOLATED
WET MICRO BURSTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
STORM EARLIER PRODUCED A WIND GUST AT THE AWOS AT CAMERON TO 49 MPH.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
TROF FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE...AS GOOD MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ENOUGH THE GET CONVECTION GOING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL TRY TO BUILD TO THE
EAST EARLIER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT...ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE...TO KEEP A DAILY
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

RUA

MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS HELPING TO PRODUCE MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINED IN THE MARINE ZONES FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME BY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING
A LITTLE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WHEN LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY...DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES TO THE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CATEGORY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL RIDGE WEST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  74  88  74 /  90  50  50  20
KBPT  84  75  88  76 /  90  50  50  30
KAEX  82  72  88  73 /  90  50  50  20
KLFT  84  75  87  76 /  90  60  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-EVANGELINE-
     IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-
     ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
     NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-
     SOUTHERN NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
456 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
191130-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
456 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STORMS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND
2 INCHES...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WHERE THE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DECENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER
ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A DAILY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLE
REPORTS OF FLOODING.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-191130-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
456 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED. A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RUA

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