River Flood Warning 23, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
701 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY. CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FM NW TO SE THIS AFTN AS A SFC FRONT
AND UPPER TROF PROGRESS EAST ACRS THE AREA. CARRIED PREVAILING
SHRA AT ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTN...WITH TEMPO GROUPS EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR GUSTY WINDS...THUNDER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
VISBY/CIGS LOWERING TO IFR DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP...CIGS SHOULD BE VFR WITH VISBYS
HOVERING AROUND THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. KEPT PROB30 GROUPS FOR
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WITH VC THEREAFTER AS ISOLTD TO SCT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SWLY AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME VRBL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING AS IT
APPROACHES THE I-10 CORRIDOR.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

..HEAVY RAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS
BRINGING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE ON THE 18/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH WAS AT 2.25
INCHES OR ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT. SINCE
THEN...LATEST GPS-MET DATA...SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2.4 AND 2.5 INCHES...WHICH IS NOW
TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION...DEFINITELY NEEDED FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT. LIFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...IS TAPPING INTO THE MOISTURE...PROVIDING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND SO
FAR AS OF 3:30 AM...THE KLCH ASOS HAS RECORDED 2.65 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH AROUND 2.25 INCHES IN THE LAST 1 1/2
HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHERE LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST. AGAIN...PROGS KEEP PWAT VALUES OVER 2.25
INCHES WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT DURING THE DAY.
THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS AREA WIDE BETWEEN 1 1/2 AND 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. INHERITED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND WILL KEEP THAT
GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO DRAG DOWN
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS...SO SOME ISOLATED
WET MICRO BURSTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE
STORM EARLIER PRODUCED A WIND GUST AT THE AWOS AT CAMERON TO 49 MPH.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
TROF FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SO A
DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE...AS GOOD MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BE ENOUGH THE GET CONVECTION GOING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL TRY TO BUILD TO THE
EAST EARLIER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT...ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE...TO KEEP A DAILY
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

RUA

MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS HELPING TO PRODUCE MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE RESULT WILL BE
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINED IN THE MARINE ZONES FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME BY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING
A LITTLE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WHEN LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY...DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES TO THE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CATEGORY. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL RIDGE WEST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  74  88  74 /  90  50  50  20
KBPT  84  75  88  76 /  90  50  50  30
KAEX  82  72  88  73 /  90  50  50  20
KLFT  84  75  87  76 /  90  60  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-EVANGELINE-
     IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-
     ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
     NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-
     SOUTHERN NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
456 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
191130-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
456 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STORMS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND
2 INCHES...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WHERE THE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DECENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER
ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A DAILY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLE
REPORTS OF FLOODING.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-191130-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
456 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED. A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE STORMS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RUA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
741 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VIDOR                   30.13N 94.00W
07/18/2014                   ORANGE             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            THE I-10 ON RAMP IN VIDOR IS FLOODED WITH WATER OVER THE
            ROAD

&&

RDEAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
754 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BEAUMONT                30.09N 94.14W
07/18/2014                   JEFFERSON          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLOODING NEAR LAMAR UNIVERSITY

&&

RDEAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
813 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEW IBERIA              30.01N 91.82W
07/18/2014                   IBERIA             LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT FROM IBERIA PARISH EM OF MULTIPLE ROADS BEING
            CLOSED DUE TO STREET FLOODING

&&

RDEAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
820 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

LAZ030-031-041-042-073-074-TXZ215-216-181445-
JEFFERSON TX-BEAUREGARD LA-ALLEN LA-CALCASIEU LA-ORANGE TX-
JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-WEST CAMERON LA-EAST CAMERON LA-
820 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAUREGARD...ALLEN...CALCASIEU...
JEFFERSON DAVIS AND CAMERON PARISHES...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 820 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTH OF
BULLER TO 6 MILES NORTH OF SABINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE TO 33 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SABINE PASS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...SABINE
PASS...TOPSY...WESTLAKE...MOSS BLUFF...SABINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE AND
LAKE CHARLES.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

LAT...LON 2957 9436 2973 9436 3007 9371 3042 9337
      3044 9264 2976 9321 2974 9367 2972 9376
      2966 9386 2967 9403 2956 9432

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
833 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PORT NECHES             29.97N 93.94W
07/18/2014                   JEFFERSON          TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROAD CLOSING AT SH346 AND SH347 DUE TO STANDING WATER

&&

RDEAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
835 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 20 S JOHNSONS BAYOU     29.48N 93.63W
07/18/2014  M47 MPH          GMZ450             LA   AWOS

            REPORT FROM AWOS KVBS LOCATED IN SABINE BLOCK 13.

&&

MOGGED