Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS North Platte, NE

276 
WWUS53 KLBF 162310
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

NEC041-115-162345-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-140616T2345Z/
CUSTER NE-LOUP NE-
610 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LOUP
AND NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 609 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TAYLOR...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAYLOR AND KENT DIVERSION DAM STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 183 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 132.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 9949 4174 9969 4181 9969 4197 9951
      4178 9922 4175 9923 4174 9920 4171 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 232DEG 22KT 4178 9942

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

STOPPKOTTE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INVOF A WARM
FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR
VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW...WITH CU FIELD GROWING MORE AGITATED.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS QUICKLY. WINDS ARE BACKED TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...AND
THIS AREA WILL HAVE A TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ON TUESDAY...WILL HAVE WATCH THE AREA ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER...AS MODELS HINTING AT THE WARM FRONT REMAINING IN
THAT AREA. THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER AND WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE FORECAST FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...IN THE EARLY EVENING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE SITUATED FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY LINE WILL HAVE PUSHED
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TO LEAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S LOCALLY...WHILE AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 60S...WITH EVEN SOME LOW
70S INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY INTO NEBRASKA...WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES PICK UP IN THE
EVENING...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE IT PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL NEED TO RELY ON SOME LIFT WITH ANY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO GET CONVECTION OVER
THE WARM FRONT IN THE EVENING. A STRONG CAP WILL EXIST OVER THE WARM
SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET EAST OF THE AREA DON/T SEE ENOUGH
TO GET ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR. ON THE FENCE ABOUT
CHANCES OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THERE REALLY AREN/T ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH. WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE WILL STICK WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WATCH CLOSELY HOW THE
MODELS TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE
IDAHO AREA UP INTO MONTANA. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS...HOWEVER THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS HAS A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 16.00Z ECMWF AND 16.12Z GEM SHOW A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE A BIT MORE
SUBTLE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND KEEP THE ENERGY FURTHER NORTH. THESE
DIFFERENCES LEAD TO DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WITH THE NAM/GFS BEING QUICKER TO MOVE THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND THEN KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE FRONT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF/GEM
ON THE OTHER HAND ARE SLOWER TO PROGRESS THE FRONT...AND WITH
STRONGER UPWARD FORCING ALOFT WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE WOULD
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION POST-FRONTALLY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. WILL EDGE ON UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT AND GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD UNTIL BETTER
CONSENSUS IS REACHED AMONG THE MODELS.

THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK CENTERS ON THE UPPER
LOW MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED OF THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...HOWEVER VARY IN LATITUDE...WITH THE CENTER RANGING
FROM JUST NORTH OF THE CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER TO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. THEN BY FRIDAY NIGHT...IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO BEFORE PIVOTING AND DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE SYSTEM BECOMES OCCLUDED THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO NEBRASKA SO NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER A FURTHER SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SO
COULD HAVE A HIGHER THREAT FOR RAIN. AT THIS TIME...A BLEND OF THE
MODELS WILL WORK FOR THE FORECAST TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY INITIATE NEAR THE DRY LINE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE FOR AREAS
AROUND KONL WHERE MORE CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY VFR WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT ISOLATED MVFR OR IFR EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...TAYLOR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
438 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172145-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
438 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 /338 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GORDON TO MULLEN TO NORTH PLATTE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS FROM BROKEN BOW TO BASSETT AND POINTS NORTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE DETERMINED CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

TAYLOR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
453 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

NEZ026-027-038-162245-
BLAINE NE-CUSTER NE-LOUP NE-
453 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUP...NORTHERN
CUSTER AND SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 450 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ANSELMO...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROKEN
BOW...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ANSELMO...
  VICTORIA SPRINGS STATE RECREATION AREA...
  MILBURN...
  MILBURN DIVERSION DAM STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 2 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 253 AND 269.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 92 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND 273.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

STOPPKOTTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
548 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             9 WNW SARGENT           41.69N 99.53W
06/16/2014  E1.50 INCH       CUSTER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MARTIN