Coastal Flood Statement 5, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH HAVE ALLOWED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL
RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT OVER NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS OUT 20 NM. SURFACE WISE...A TWO PRONG WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS REACHING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
RANGING FROM 5 KNOTS AT LONG KEY TO 11 KNOTS AT SAND KEY LIGHT AND
PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE KEYS WILL BE SLOWLY SQUELCHED SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE
ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. BECAUSE OF THE BRIEF TRANSITION FROM ANTICYCLONIC TO
CYCLONIC...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PLOWING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER DEEP ANTICYCLONE FROM OLD MEXICO WILL BUILD
EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WISE...A SPELL OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ALBEIT WEAK WILL POSE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH A
BETTER LIKELIHOOD JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DRIER AND STABLE AIR TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE ISLAND OF CUBA
TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO OUR ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A LARGE SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH A LENGTHY RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. GIVEN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEALING A STABLE LAYER HOLDING BELOW 700 MB.
WITH THAT SAID...A FRESH TO STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PROMPT ISOLATED DIME POPS BEGINNING SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY UNDER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL EXPERIENCE A
SUBTLE SURGE AND BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE SLACKENING BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND
TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL ABATE SLIGHTLY AND ESPECIALLY ON THE COOLER
WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...BEFORE ANOTHER WIND SURGE
OVERSPREADS OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS
AND SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  77  83  72  74 / 30 10 30 50
MARATHON  77  85  74  75 / 30 10 30 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....EV

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
606 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-251100-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
606 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS ALL KEYS
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.