Coastal Flood Statement 4, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
313 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND DECREASED SLOWLY DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT AND ISOLATED IN COVERAGE ALL DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
LEFT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS HOUR. DRY
AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT...WHILE MORE DIFLUENT FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER SINCE YESTERDAY.

WE POSSESS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... AND
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN NIL OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SLIGHT
ON MONDAY OWING TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AT
ANY ALTITUDE. WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT OWING
TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS -- 1/ A PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL
MOISTURE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND EASTERN CUBA...WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AROUND EARLY MONDAY EVENING...
2/ A PERIOD OF LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MASS CONVERGENCE DUE TO A LARGE-
SCALE ACCELERATION OF EASTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATORWARD FLANK OF AN
INTENSIFYING ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL COMMENCE ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVES...AND 3/ AN EASTWARD-MIGRATING
MIDLATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET WILL INDUCE A
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SCALED BACK AS
THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BETWEEN SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEMS. BEST TIMING
FOR THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EPISODE AND COLD FRONT LOOKS
LIKE WEDNESDAY MIDDAY. EXACT TIMING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE MODES...
PRECIPITATION STRUCTURES...SKY COVER...AND WIND PATTERN WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EVOLVING BETWEEN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS...IN TURN...
WILL DEPEND UPON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MIGRATING THROUGH THE GULF BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HENCE...THE UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WEDNESDAY...A DECENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BLOW LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND WE HAVE
INCREASED THE WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA FOR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE
DISCONTINUED FOR ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT. FRESH SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
BLOW ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHTER BREEZES OVER FLORIDA BAY...AND THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH 24/18Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KNOTS. AFT 24/00Z...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 23...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1957...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  76  83  75 / -  -  10 50
MARATHON  84  76  84  75 / -  -  10 50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
520 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-241100-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BARNES SOUND, BLACKWATER SOUND, AND
BUTTONWOOD SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
520 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
MORNING...

WINDS AND WAVES...SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AGAIN ACROSS ALL OR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE DISTRICT DURING WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FUTTERMAN