Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS HAS FORMED ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME OF
THE STORMS HAVE BECOME NEAR SEVERE AND EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORM
WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE A REAL ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN GENERAL...THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN DOING TOO WELL
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE AS THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG WITH A
WELL DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE STEADILY BREAKING DOWN
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP BENEATH IT
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES AND STRENGTHENS...IT
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL END UP BEING OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EASTWARD...HOWEVER...AS THE
RIDGE DIGS IN A BIT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG THE
SLUGGISH FRONT SET OFF REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
RAIN SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE
FRONT FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MAX OUT BELOW
NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...AS
THE BULK OF COOL AIR SHOULD STILL BE TRAPPED NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ONLY ALLOW FOR A SMALL WARM UP ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS THAT DAY WILL
LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EASTERN KENTUCKY IS PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BISECTING THE AREA WHICH WE ARE WATCHING AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND THERE IS ALSO A FRONT WHICH IS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH LOTS OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
OUT AHEAD OF IT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT FOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS. PUT SOME TEMPO CONDITIONS IN THE TAF
AS THE BEST ESTIMATE AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY AFFECT
THEM. EXPECT SOME VLIFR TO FORM AT THE TAF STATIONS AS WELL AS THE
VALLEYS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HIGH WATER WITH CREEKS...DITCHES AND LOW WATER
CROSSING RUNNING FULL.

DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND ANY AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY ANY WIND DAMAGE...WIND SPEED...OR HEAVY
RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

KAS/HAL/JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
529 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

KYZ052-060-104-106-108-109-022230-
MENIFEE-ROWAN-ELLIOTT-MAGOFFIN-MORGAN-WOLFE-
529 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 630 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING...

   NORTHERN MAGOFFIN...
   EASTERN MENIFEE...
   MORGAN...
   SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN...
   NORTHERN WOLFE AND
   ELLIOTT.

AT 528 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CULVER TO MURPHYFORK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SANDY HOOK TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST LIBERTY...MOVING EAST AT 65
MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...WONNIE AROUND
535 PM EDT...MASHFORK AROUND 540 PM EDT...WHEELERSBURG AROUND 545 PM
EDT...

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 8292 3807 8293 3800 8302 3791 8296
      3786 8300 3780 8297 3775 8297 3776 8368
      3782 8363 3786 8367 3802 8360 3802 8358
      3806 8357 3805 8350 3808 8346 3808 8350
      3807 8351 3808 8352 3818 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 256DEG 57KT 3812 8294 3785 8333

JMW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
539 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

KYZ080-084>088-022245-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-LAUREL-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
539 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 645 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING...

   KNOX...
   MCCREARY...
   WHITLEY...
   BELL...
   SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN AND
   SOUTHWESTERN LAUREL.

AT 539 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GROVE TO GREAT MEADOWS CAMPSITES...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF WILLIAMSBURG TO 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ONEIDA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...DORTHAE AROUND
545 PM EDT...CORBIN AROUND 550 PM EDT...ROSSLAND AROUND 555 PM EDT...
ARKLE AROUND 600 PM EDT...BAILEYS SWITCH AROUND 605 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 8478 3703 8429 3681 8310 3673 8318
      3666 8342 3666 8353 3658 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 278DEG 39KT 3695 8423 3657 8469

JMW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
602 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     WHITLEY CITY            36.72N 84.48W
09/02/2014  M45.20 MPH       MCCREARY           KY   MESONET

            KENTUCKY MESONET RECORDED A 45.2 MPH WIND GUST IN WHITLEY
            CITY.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
605 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHITLEY CITY            36.72N 84.48W
09/02/2014                   MCCREARY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM SPOTTER REPORTED ROOF AND GUTTER DAMAGE TO THE VFW
            HALL IN WHITLEY CITY ON MAIN STREET.

&&

RAY