Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS HAS FORMED ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME OF
THE STORMS HAVE BECOME NEAR SEVERE AND EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORM
WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE WIND GUSTS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE A REAL ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN GENERAL...THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN DOING TOO WELL
WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. WEDNESDAY FIGURES TO BE A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE AS THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ONCE
AGAIN...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG WITH A
WELL DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE STEADILY BREAKING DOWN
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP BENEATH IT
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES AND STRENGTHENS...IT
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL END UP BEING OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
MOISTURE COMING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EASTWARD...HOWEVER...AS THE
RIDGE DIGS IN A BIT JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG THE
SLUGGISH FRONT SET OFF REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
RAIN SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE
FRONT FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MAX OUT BELOW
NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONT
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE JUST BELOW NORMAL...AS
THE BULK OF COOL AIR SHOULD STILL BE TRAPPED NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...ONCE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
ONLY ALLOW FOR A SMALL WARM UP ON MONDAY...AS HIGHS THAT DAY WILL
LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

EASTERN KENTUCKY IS PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BISECTING THE AREA WHICH WE ARE WATCHING AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND THERE IS ALSO A FRONT WHICH IS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH LOTS OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
OUT AHEAD OF IT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT FOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS. PUT SOME TEMPO CONDITIONS IN THE TAF
AS THE BEST ESTIMATE AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY AFFECT
THEM. EXPECT SOME VLIFR TO FORM AT THE TAF STATIONS AS WELL AS THE
VALLEYS LATER THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HIGH WATER WITH CREEKS...DITCHES AND LOW WATER
CROSSING RUNNING FULL.

DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND ANY AREAS
THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE RELAY ANY WIND DAMAGE...WIND SPEED...OR HEAVY
RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

KAS/HAL/JJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
449 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

KYZ068-069-079-080-083-084-022145-
MCCREARY-PULASKI-ROCKCASTLE-WAYNE-LAUREL-JACKSON-
449 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 545 PM EDT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHERN JACKSON...
   NORTHERN MCCREARY...
   PULASKI...
   SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE...
   WAYNE AND
   LAUREL.

AT 449 PM EDT...SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM BANDY TO 22 MILES WEST OF SUNNYBROOK...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON TO 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BYRDSTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...WILLAILLA
AROUND 455 PM EDT...BROMO AROUND 500 PM EDT...WABP AROUND 505 PM
EDT...WELLHOPE AROUND 510 PM EDT...AND PINE HILL AROUND 515 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 8496 3696 8495 3696 8490 3699 8485
      3705 8491 3709 8491 3736 8455 3734 8451
      3736 8449 3737 8381 3735 8378 3731 8388
      3726 8390 3725 8394 3720 8394 3661 8473
      3662 8500 3669 8503 3676 8501 3686 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 269DEG 26KT 3730 8452 3666 8535

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
455 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

KYZ058-059-068-069-080-108-111-114-022200-
POWELL-ESTILL-ROCKCASTLE-LAUREL-JACKSON-OWSLEY-WOLFE-LEE-
455 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 600
PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING...

   JACKSON...
   WESTERN OWSLEY...
   EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN POWELL...
   NORTHERN ROCKCASTLE...
   WESTERN WOLFE...
   LEE...
   SOUTHERN ESTILL AND
   EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL LAUREL.

AT 454 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PITTS TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF PINE HILL...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF STANTON TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT
VERNON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...WIND CAVE
AROUND 500 PM EDT...MACEDONIA AROUND 505 PM EDT...ZOE AROUND 510 PM
EDT...DELVINTA AROUND 515 PM EDT...NATHANTON AROUND 520 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 8447 3754 8431 3752 8427 3753 8420
      3756 8417 3757 8410 3764 8413 3767 8410
      3769 8410 3779 8343 3733 8379 3733 8382
      3731 8385 3733 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 265DEG 42KT 3776 8384 3720 8429

JMW