Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1253 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

WINDS GUSTS NEAR OR GREATER THAN SEVERE WEATHER CRITERIA HAVE BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME REPORTS OF TREES DOWN HAVE
STARTED TO FILTER IN. THE KENTUCKY MESONET HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN
MONITORING WIND GUSTS AS THIS POTENT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. DO NOT REALLY SEE MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT LEFT...HOWEVER
WILL LET THE WATCH RIDE UNTIL THE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA. THERE HAS BEEN A SECONDARY WIND MAX AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA...HOWEVER THEY HAVE NOT BEEN NEARLY AS STRONG AS WITH THE
SQUALL LINE. WILL BE DROPPING COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES TO THE EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1037 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

MADE MULTIPLE UPDATES DURING THE EVENING TO FINE TUNE THE
FORECAST...INCLUDING TIMING OF WX TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH STRENGTH OF
CONVECTION SHOULD SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND AS IT HEADS
EAST...STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ALOFT WILL BE DRAGGED TO THE
SURFACE AND STILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

TIMING FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH COLLABORATED
FORECAST AND MODELS ALL AGREEING. CURRENTLY CLOUDS...TEMPS AND DWPTS
ARE ALL INCREASING RAPIDLY. TEMPS HAVE HIT 70 AT A COUPLE OF OUR SRN
AIRPORTS AND ARE IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AREA.
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 50S. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BE OVER INTERSTATE 75 AT 1 AM AND CLEAR OF THE STAT BY 4 AM.
THE TSRA WILL TRACK WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE
STORMS EAST OF THE STATE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 AM. EXPECTING SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DISSIPATED THROUGH MIDDLE KY AND THE TIMING FOR
THE FRONT AT NIGHT IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE. STILL ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY COULD BRING THE LOW LEVEL JET WINDS TO THE SFC AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH STORM MOVEMENT OF 40 TO 50 MPH IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
ADDITIONAL WIND TO BRING DOWN LARGE LIMBS AND TREES.

BY NOON ON FRI THE FRONT...ALL THE STORMS AND EVEN MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WILL SLIP EAST TO GIVE ERN KY A MUCH BETTER DAY. COOLER AIR WILL BE
RUSHING IN ON THE WEST WINDS THAT WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON FRI ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THEN WITH SOME CLEARING...LIGHTER WINDS AND STILL COLD AIR ADVECTION
THE LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. THERE MAY
BE SOME ICING PROBLEMS AS THE RAINFALL COULD FREEZE ON BRIDGES OR
OVERPASSES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG
500MB LOW DUE NORTH OF US...RESTING NEAR JAMES BAY...AND KEEPING
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS KY FROM SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH MONDAY 12Z. AT THIS
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...AND KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A PATTERN IN WHICH COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM CANADA YET AGAIN BY MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DEVELOPS AND PASSES ACROSS
OR JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...PUTTING MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS IN AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. THE SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY ONE THAT
LOOKS TO SHOW ANY SORT OF CONCERN FOR THE WEATHER TO IMPACT THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY DRY AND BENIGN.

STARTING OUT ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A MORE ZONAL PATTERN IN
PLACE...BUT A STILL PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS
THAT DAY SHOULD REACH IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR 60. AFTER THAT
POINT...EXPECT TEMPS TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...AND
THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY DROP AS COLDER AIR FILTERS BACK IN DURING THE
DAY MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN TAKES HOLD OF MUCH
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MEANS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS IN THE 30S BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME...PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS /AT LEAST THE LAST 4/ HAVE SHOWN THE MAIN PRECIP
POTENTIAL PULLING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AROUND THE SAME TIME. IN THE LATEST AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS...LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THIS AREA OF PRECIP...BUT ARE
CONTINUING TO HAVE A VERY HARD TIME DETERMINING THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. EVEN THE NAM...WHOSE CYCLE
ENDS BEFORE THE PRECIP EVER HITS EASTERN KY...IS SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW UPSTREAM DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH
ALL OF THIS IN MIND...STUCK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT WERE
GIVEN BY THE ALLBLEND. THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE SEVERAL OTHER ROUNDS
OF LIGHT PRECIP SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/AND
GFS...MAINLY DURING THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME. ON ONE
HAND...ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING UP WITH THIS POTENTIAL PRECIP. ON
THE OTHER...NONE OF THEM AGREE ON THE EXTENT...TIMING...OR STRENGTH
OF THE PRECIP. AS A RESULT...DID MENTION POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT WAS NOT NEARLY
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES. IT WILL BE
POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMOVE THIS
PRECIP...SO WILL BE SOMETHING TO LOOK FOR DURING NEXT FORECAST
PACKAGE. REGARDLESS...DO NOT EXPECT EITHER ROUND TO BE VERY
IMPACTFUL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

THE SQUALL LINE IS NOW THROUGH ALL THE TAF STATIONS EXCEPT SJS. SOME
ISOLATED THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SO FAR...HAVE ONLY SEEN
SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AND HAVE SEEN MOSTLY VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL STAY
VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-212330-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
319 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DUSTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
947 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-210800-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
947 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT. IT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN ABOUT 10 PM AND 4 AM. WHILE THE
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING MAY BE ON THE DECLINE AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH...WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG. THUNDERSTORMS
OR EVEN JUST HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO BRING THESE STRONG
WINDS TO THE GROUND AND CAUSE DAMAGE. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS LEADING TO HIGH WATER ISSUES.

HAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1129 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     HAIL             BRODHEAD                37.40N 84.42W
02/20/2014  M0.50 INCH       ROCKCASTLE         KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SHALLENBERGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1144 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

KYZ044-210515-
FLEMING-
1144 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTY THROUGH 1215
AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   NORTHERN FLEMING.

AT 1145 PM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PECKS
RIDGE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLEMINGSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...DALESBURG
AROUND 1150 PM EST...FOXPORT AROUND 1155 PM EST...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

GEOGERIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1153 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EUBANK                  37.28N 84.65W
02/20/2014                   PULASKI            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ALONG FREEDOM CHURCH ROAD. ALSO
            TREE LIMBS WITH A DIAMETER OF 4 TO 5 INCHES.

&&

SHALLENBERGER