Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS TAKING OFF AND RUSHING INLAND WITH A BAND
OF NUMEROUS STORMS PUSHING PAST GAINESVILLE AND STARKE. MEANWHILE
ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE...THE SBRZ GOT A LATE START BUT IS NOW
NEARING I-95 IN NE FL. APPEARS THAT A COLLISION WILL OCCUR OVER
CLAY AND PUTNAM COUNTIES BTWN 3 AND 4 PM. HI-RES MODELS SHOW
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES SOUTH OF
JAX WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. STORMS ARE MOVING A LITTLE
FASTER TODAY...BUT AS THEY MERGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WE
WILL SEE MORE STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED
FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...
OVERALL LOOKING AT A WET MIDWEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW-
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES DIGS SOUTH AND DRAGS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SO FOR TUESDAY
LOOKING LIKE SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH A CONTINUING FLORIDA STORM MOVEMENT FROM THE NATURE
COAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES ON AN WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION AND SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE
LINE. WITH 50-60 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA AND
SOME DRYING OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

THURSDAY...THE FRONT DRAGS FURTHER SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE ACTION
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND VERY DRY AIR...FOR
JULY...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE DRY AIR DOES NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE-IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GULF
COAST OPENING UP THE NORTHERN GULF MOISTURE AND LEADING TO
ENHANCED AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MOST OF THE DAY BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR EXCEPT NEAR TSRA. HAVE VCTS AGAIN THIS AFTN AT THE
TERMINALS. STORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER AT SSI AND WILL NOT ADD A
TEMPO FOR TSRA. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE SE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO A SEA BREEZE.
OTHERWISE S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE
INTO THE SERN STATES TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA WATERS...THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  93  71  93 /  20  70  70  40
SSI  75  91  76  89 /  20  50  50  50
JAX  74  93  74  91 /  30  60  60  60
SGJ  75  90  75  89 /  30  60  60  70
GNV  72  92  73  91 /  30  60  60  60
OCF  72  92  73  89 /  30  50  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/SANDRIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-150900-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
330 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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