Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS TAKING OFF AND RUSHING INLAND WITH A BAND
OF NUMEROUS STORMS PUSHING PAST GAINESVILLE AND STARKE. MEANWHILE
ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE...THE SBRZ GOT A LATE START BUT IS NOW
NEARING I-95 IN NE FL. APPEARS THAT A COLLISION WILL OCCUR OVER
CLAY AND PUTNAM COUNTIES BTWN 3 AND 4 PM. HI-RES MODELS SHOW
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES SOUTH OF
JAX WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. STORMS ARE MOVING A LITTLE
FASTER TODAY...BUT AS THEY MERGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WE
WILL SEE MORE STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED
FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...
OVERALL LOOKING AT A WET MIDWEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW-
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES DIGS SOUTH AND DRAGS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SO FOR TUESDAY
LOOKING LIKE SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH A CONTINUING FLORIDA STORM MOVEMENT FROM THE NATURE
COAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES ON AN WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION AND SLOWLY DROPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE
LINE. WITH 50-60 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH FLORIDA AND
SOME DRYING OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

THURSDAY...THE FRONT DRAGS FURTHER SOUTH WITH MOST OF THE ACTION
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND VERY DRY AIR...FOR
JULY...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE DRY AIR DOES NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE-IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GULF
COAST OPENING UP THE NORTHERN GULF MOISTURE AND LEADING TO
ENHANCED AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MOST OF THE DAY BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR EXCEPT NEAR TSRA. HAVE VCTS AGAIN THIS AFTN AT THE
TERMINALS. STORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER AT SSI AND WILL NOT ADD A
TEMPO FOR TSRA. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE SE OVER NEARSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO A SEA BREEZE.
OTHERWISE S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE
INTO THE SERN STATES TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS AREA WATERS...THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  93  71  93 /  20  70  70  40
SSI  75  91  76  89 /  20  50  50  50
JAX  74  93  74  91 /  30  60  60  60
SGJ  75  90  75  89 /  30  60  60  70
GNV  72  92  73  91 /  30  60  60  60
OCF  72  92  73  89 /  30  50  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/SANDRIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-150900-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
330 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1137 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

FLZ035-141630-
GILCHRIST-
1137 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GILCHRIST
COUNTY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

AT 1137 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES
WEST OF BELL TO 16 MILES SOUTH OF TRENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND TRENTON
AND BELL THROUGH 1230 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN
BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE
A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED BUILDING. UNPLUG ELECTRONIC DEVICES AND
APPLIANCES AS THEY ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND MAY BE DAMAGED
BY NEARBY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2964 8296 2970 8296 2974 8294 2976 8296
      2980 8293 2982 8294 2984 8290 2991 8286
      2993 8281 2956 8267 2955 8276 2958 8278
      2958 8296 2961 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1537Z 225DEG 10KT 2980 8303 2940 8287

SANDRIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1241 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

FLZ021-022-035-036-141730-
ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-SUWANNEE-
1241 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALACHUA...
COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1241 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BRANFORD TO
7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT WHITE TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HIGH
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND GRADY...BRANFORD...OBRIEN...HILDRETH...
ICHETUCKNEE SPRING...FORT WHITE...COLUMBIA...HIGH SPRINGS...OLENO
STATE PARK AND LAKE CITY THROUGH 130 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING. UNPLUG ELECTRONIC DEVICES AND APPLIANCES AS THEY ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND MAY BE DAMAGED BY NEARBY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3002 8301 3031 8275 3011 8252 3003 8253
      3001 8257 2999 8258 2994 8250 2984 8250
      2956 8276 2958 8280 2978 8282 2985 8290
      2988 8288 2989 8292 2995 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 218DEG 17KT 2999 8291 2986 8276
          2967 8274

SANDRIK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

FLZ023-025-030>032-036-037-141930-
ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-DUVAL-PUTNAM-UNION-
249 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLAY...
BRADFORD...BAKER...ALACHUA...PUTNAM...UNION AND DUVAL COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 249 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
LAWTEY TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSLEY TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MELROSE LANDING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND CAMP BLANDING...LAKE
GENEVA...KINGSLEY...KEYSTONE HEIGHTS...STARKE...LAWTEY...MELROSE...
ELLERBEE...MELROSE LANDING AND PUTNAM HALL THROUGH 330 PM EDT.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2975 8161 2957 8208 2983 8212 3017 8224
      3038 8187 3013 8161 3012 8168 3003 8169
      2996 8160 2989 8161 2987 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 242DEG 19KT 3013 8206 2991 8193
          2965 8197

NELSON