Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/T-STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH WEAK UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS.
APPEARS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS TO I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LIGHT NORTHEAST ALOFT AS SHEAR AXIS PASSES...MAY
MEAN END TO PRECIP THREAT I-95 EASTWARD TOWARD SUNSET...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FURTHER INLAND. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY WIND DOWN A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET. STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
GIVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT AND -8C 500MB TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WHILE A FEW POP UP STORMS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...MUCH OF
THE DAY THERE SHOULD BE DRY. LITTLE BETTER CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDAY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY TO
FOCUS ON. HAVE CONFINED POPS ON TUESDAY TO THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COUPLED WITH A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
GET CONVECTION GOING THERE...AND EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE COLLISION
COULD GET CONVECTION GOING FAR SOUTH. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET EACH EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH AN
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN OF SUBSIDENCE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME GETTING INITIATED. FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO BE DRY. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE FAR WEST WHERE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COUPLED WITH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE COULD AID IN CONVECTION THERE. BETTER CHANCES
RETURN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN
TO DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING OUT BY NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE...
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT LOWER CONDITIONS
VICINITY OF TSRA. CONDITIONS MAY FAVOR WET MICROBURSTS BENEATH
STRONGER TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND BECOME THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS...LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  91  69  92 /  40  20  10  10
SSI  74  83  74  83 /  20  20  10  10
JAX  70  88  71  88 /  30  20  10  10
SGJ  72  84  73  84 /  20  20  20  10
GNV  69  89  69  88 /  40  20  20  20
OCF  69  89  69  89 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/STRUBLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
502 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-160915-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
502 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SCATTERED STORMS TODAY WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL HAVE ERRATIC STORM MOTION TODAY DUE TO LIGHT
STEERING FLOW. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

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