Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION
YESTERDAY HAS HELPED TO SPUR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MS. ELSEWHERE THE EFFECT OF THE PREVAILING AND
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT IS KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED AT BEST.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO REMAIN MOST CONCENTRATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LITTLE IMPETUS TO LINGER MUCH PAST SUNSET.
WE WILL BE WATCHING MORE VIGOROUS CELLS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTIVE OF ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS. ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY ISOLATED AT BEST AND THUS NOTHING WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
HWO.

THE PATCHY RAINFALL IN WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IS HELPING TO
BREAK THE HEAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ELSEWHERE HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105
CURRENTLY. MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD COOL DOWN ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT TO KEEP
HEAT ADVISORIES FROM BECOMING NECESSARY (SINCE LOW TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE 75 ARE ALSO CRITERIA TO MEET ADVISORY STATUS). TOMORROW AND
INTO THE WEEKEND THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED RIDGE WILL BE AN EVEN
BIGGER PLAYER...INCREASING HEAT AND DOING A BETTER JOB AT
SUPPRESSING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MAV HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK MAINLY ON TRACK WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED TO
SATISFY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER TODAY ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR REGION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS...SOMEWHAT TIED TO SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CASCADING NORTH FROM
THE COAST. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE
THE REGION A BREAK IN WARM AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. THUS 850MB
TEMPS WILL COOL SOME INTO THE MIDDLE 20S DEGREE C. RAIN CHANCES WILL
PICK UP AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND PWATS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 INCHES. THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE CHANCES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE MEAN RIDGING WILL FLUCTUATE
SOME DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE TROPICS ARE CONCERNED MODELS ARE GENERALLY TRENDING
TOWARD KEEPING TROPICAL SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PUSHING THEN OFF THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE
MONITORING THE SITUATION CLOSELY AS A FEW GFS AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DO STILL MANAGE TO PUSH TROPICAL LOWS INTO THE GULF AS THEY
AVOID BEING PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES GO MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES... EURO...NAVY
AND UK MODELS KEEP THE MEAN RIDGE DOMINANT OVER OUR REGION. THE GFS
TRIED TO BRING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHED A FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHICH SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MODELS WERE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND HEAT AND INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

ALL IN ALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY LARGE DEVIATIONS FROM MEX POPS
AND TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /17/BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND WILL
CONTINUE AT MOST INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE PSBL AT MAINLY
IN W TO SW MS TO NE LA...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN
KGLH/KJAN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AROUND 20-23Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE W TO SW AROUND 4-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  97  74  97 /  13   8   8  10
MERIDIAN      72  97  72  98 /  12   9  10   9
VICKSBURG     72  96  72  97 /  13   7   4   8
HATTIESBURG   74  97  74  98 /  13  19   8  19
NATCHEZ       73  94  73  95 /  13  14   4  14
GREENVILLE    74  97  73  98 /  12   5   4   2
GREENWOOD     73  97  72  98 /  11   5   5   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/DC/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
233 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
221945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
233 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...FRIDAY

THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR DANGEROUS AFTERNOON HEAT AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS FRIDAY AS MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 101 TO
105 DEGREES OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 103 AND 108 ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 115
 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105
 DEGREES FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
HIGH...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 110 TO 114 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 109 DEGREES FOR ONE TO
 THREE DAYS.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR ONE TO THREE
 DAYS.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 NW BROOKHAVEN        31.72N 90.56W
08/21/2014                   COPIAH             MS   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED NEAR JACKSON LIBERTY RD AND
            MIDWAY RD.

&&

DL

MSZ063-212235-
LAWRENCE MS-
506 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
506 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF WANILLA AT 507 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3170 9015 3172 8999 3152 9000 3158 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 177DEG 7KT 3165 9006

JA

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MSZ054-062-212240-
LINCOLN MS-COPIAH MS-
509 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
509 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF WESSON AT 510 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL COPIAH AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3180 9039 3180 9022 3167 9024 3167 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 177DEG 7KT 3171 9030

JA

MSZ049-212245-
RANKIN MS-
513 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
513 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF BRANDON AT 513 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3243 8995 3235 8974 3217 8986 3224 9002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 207DEG 3KT 3228 8994

JA