Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Jackson, MS

466 
WWUS54 KJAN 212337
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
637 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MSC127-212347-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0345.000000T0000Z-140822T0000Z/
SIMPSON MS-
637 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3178 8978 3195 8981 3198 8966 3191 8965
      3180 8966
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 176DEG 8KT 3194 8970

$$

JA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION
YESTERDAY HAS HELPED TO SPUR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MS. ELSEWHERE THE EFFECT OF THE PREVAILING AND
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT IS KEEPING CONVECTION ISOLATED AT BEST.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO REMAIN MOST CONCENTRATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LITTLE IMPETUS TO LINGER MUCH PAST SUNSET.
WE WILL BE WATCHING MORE VIGOROUS CELLS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTIVE OF ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS. ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
EXTREMELY ISOLATED AT BEST AND THUS NOTHING WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
HWO.

THE PATCHY RAINFALL IN WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IS HELPING TO
BREAK THE HEAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ELSEWHERE HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105
CURRENTLY. MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD COOL DOWN ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT TO KEEP
HEAT ADVISORIES FROM BECOMING NECESSARY (SINCE LOW TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE 75 ARE ALSO CRITERIA TO MEET ADVISORY STATUS). TOMORROW AND
INTO THE WEEKEND THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED RIDGE WILL BE AN EVEN
BIGGER PLAYER...INCREASING HEAT AND DOING A BETTER JOB AT
SUPPRESSING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MAV HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK MAINLY ON TRACK WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER WHAT IS NEEDED TO
SATISFY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER TODAY ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR REGION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS...SOMEWHAT TIED TO SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES CASCADING NORTH FROM
THE COAST. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE
THE REGION A BREAK IN WARM AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. THUS 850MB
TEMPS WILL COOL SOME INTO THE MIDDLE 20S DEGREE C. RAIN CHANCES WILL
PICK UP AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND PWATS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 INCHES. THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE CHANCES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE MEAN RIDGING WILL FLUCTUATE
SOME DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE TROPICS ARE CONCERNED MODELS ARE GENERALLY TRENDING
TOWARD KEEPING TROPICAL SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PUSHING THEN OFF THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE
MONITORING THE SITUATION CLOSELY AS A FEW GFS AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DO STILL MANAGE TO PUSH TROPICAL LOWS INTO THE GULF AS THEY
AVOID BEING PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES GO MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES... EURO...NAVY
AND UK MODELS KEEP THE MEAN RIDGE DOMINANT OVER OUR REGION. THE GFS
TRIED TO BRING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHED A FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHICH SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MODELS WERE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND HEAT AND INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

ALL IN ALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY LARGE DEVIATIONS FROM MEX POPS
AND TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /17/BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND WILL
CONTINUE AT MOST INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE PSBL AT MAINLY
IN W TO SW MS TO NE LA...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING DOWN
KGLH/KJAN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AROUND 20-23Z. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE W TO SW AROUND 4-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  97  74  97 /  13   8   8  10
MERIDIAN      72  97  72  98 /  12   9  10   9
VICKSBURG     72  96  72  97 /  13   7   4   8
HATTIESBURG   74  97  74  98 /  13  19   8  19
NATCHEZ       73  94  73  95 /  13  14   4  14
GREENVILLE    74  97  73  98 /  12   5   4   2
GREENWOOD     73  97  72  98 /  11   5   5   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/DC/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
233 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
221945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
233 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...FRIDAY

THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR DANGEROUS AFTERNOON HEAT AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS FRIDAY AS MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 101 TO
105 DEGREES OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 103 AND 108 ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 115
 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105
 DEGREES FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
HIGH...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 110 TO 114 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 109 DEGREES FOR ONE TO
 THREE DAYS.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR ONE TO THREE
 DAYS.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ055-056-064-065-212245-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-COVINGTON MS-
519 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...STRONG STORM OVER NORTHWEST COVINGTON COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF CLEM AT 519 PM CDT.
THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS...
SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND SOUTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3182 8989 3188 8964 3166 8960 3162 8980
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 166DEG 2KT 3173 8973

EEC

MSZ049-212300-
RANKIN MS-
532 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
532 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER JOHNS AND NEAR PUCKETT AT 531 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

THIS STORM COULD MERGE WITH A SEVERE STORM IN CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY
AND BECOME SEVERE TOWARDS SOUTHEAST RANKIN COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3210 8997 3218 8973 3204 8973 3204 8980
      3205 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 147DEG 5KT 3212 8983

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
537 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HAIL             4 ENE BRANDON           32.31N 89.94W
08/21/2014  E1.00 INCH       RANKIN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND VERY STRONG WINDS
            REPORTED ALONG TRICKHAMBRIDGE RD

&&

DL

MSZ034-035-040-041-212315-
WASHINGTON MS-SHARKEY MS-ISSAQUENA MS-HUMPHREYS MS-
543 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
543 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...STRONG STORM OVER NORTHERN SHARKEY AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER DELTA CITY AT 543 PM CDT. THE
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME WEST CENTRAL HUMPHREYS...EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
ISSAQUENA...NORTHERN SHARKEY AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3325 9096 3324 9066 3300 9071 3301 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 182DEG 2KT 3309 9081

EEC

LAZ015-212315-
RICHLAND LA-
546 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
546 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...STRONG STORM OVER WESTERN RICHLAND PARISH...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF BUCKNER AT 547 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN RICHLAND PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3233 9202 3238 9201 3243 9197 3243 9190
      3221 9193 3221 9200 3226 9201 3227 9200
      3227 9203 3228 9204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 206DEG 18KT 3234 9201

EEC

MSZ049-212335-
RANKIN MS-
602 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
602 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF PELAHATCHIE AT
603 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3244 8981 3233 8973 3228 8983 3241 8991
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 240DEG 4KT 3237 8981

JA