Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS CAN BE A PAIN IN THE
SUMMER...AND SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS GO ROUND. RATHER LARGE AND
MATURE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING DECIDED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN MAGNITUDE
AND COVERAGE AFTER SUNRISE AS IT PROGRESSED INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ATMOSPHERIC LIFTING INHERENT WITH THE
INCOMING MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE VORT MAX DID MANAGE TO SPARK A GOOD
DEAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY EXITING TO THE EAST. I CAN
UNDERSTAND THE FRUSTRATION OF THOSE ANTICIPATING RAIN TODAY BUT THAT
HAVE YET TO RECEIVE ANY...BUT THE DAY IS NOT OVER YET AND THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE! GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CONVECTIVE VORT WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...BUT FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF THAT INFLUENCE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF ZONES BECOMING
GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE SUNSET. LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY SIMULATION DEPICTS A LOOSE
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ORGANIZING NEAR I-20 OVER NORTHERN LA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN PROGRESSING TOWARD CENTRAL MS
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
MERIT...BUT IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO NOTE THE SLIGHTLY PERTURBED
NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL LATE TOMORROW IS
CONDUCIVE FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED AND SOMETIMES RANDOM CONVECTION.

AS MENTIONED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL LATER TUESDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
ZONES...BUT EVEN THERE POPS REALLY NOT GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED DOWNPOURS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED ANYWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW THE MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY BE MOTHER NATURE STARTING TO
TURN UP THE THERMOSTAT. OF COURSE WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
ANY STORMS BY LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF MS. MAV HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 93-96 RANGE LOOK
ON TRACK WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE CENTURY MARK IN A GOOD DEAL OF SPOTS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT ATOP THE
REGION...INCREASING HEAT AND LIMITING ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 105 DEGREES.

AT THIS POINT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING QUITE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
IN TERMS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
EVEN MORE REMOTE. CONSIDERING THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
STRETCH OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND STARTING
MENTIONING LIMITED RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE COMING WEEKEND MIGHT HOLD A
LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR ACTUALLY REACHING FULL HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO BEGIN
THAT OFFICIAL ADVERTISEMENT.

MODELS TODAY CONTINUED TO PAINT THE PICTURE OF THE DOGGED RIDGE
STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO GOOD
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS A WAYS OFF AND WE MUST BRACE FOR THE HOT
STRETCH TO COME. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN MS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CIGS/VSYBS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OTHERWISE.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  94  73  96 /  25  21   5  10
MERIDIAN      71  94  71  97 /  29  23   5   7
VICKSBURG     71  94  72  96 /  20  16   5  11
HATTIESBURG   75  95  74  96 /  15  18   8  17
NATCHEZ       74  93  73  94 /  14  15   6  17
GREENVILLE    72  96  74  97 /  23  20   5   7
GREENWOOD     71  94  73  96 /  28  24   5   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
228 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
191930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
228 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR DANGEROUS AFTERNOON HEAT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 105
DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

EC

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

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MSZ018-019-190200-
SUNFLOWER MS-BOLIVAR MS-
744 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
744 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 24 MILES NORTH OF DEESON TO 43 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ROSEDALE AT 743 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 40 TO 60 MPH WINDS IN
ARKANSAS.

THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN BOLIVAR AND NORTH CENTRAL SUNFLOWER COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3412 9065 3395 9063 3373 9100 3374 9115
      3379 9114 3378 9099 3384 9108 3393 9102
      3397 9110 3400 9101 3396 9098 3402 9099
      3403 9090 3409 9088 3409 9092 3412 9096
      3412 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 327DEG 22KT 3433 9100 3414 9133
          3416 9167

JA