Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1031 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.UPDATE...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING A CHAOTIC SKY OVER N MS THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR/W TN. WHILE WET MICROBURST
CHECKLIST IS ONLY INDICATING A RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOCAL WRF
AND TO SOME EXTENT THE HRRR IS INDICATING SOME MICROBURST POTENTIAL.
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR EXPECTED INCREASED CCOVERAGE DUE TO
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY INTERACTION. ALSO...INTRODUCED A LIMITED CONFIDENCE
OF SEVERE IN THE HWO FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH TSRA COMPLEX
DEVELOPING NOW OVER CNTRL AR. SCT/NUM TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PERIODIC MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE IF SITE IS DIRECTLY IMPACTED. VCTS TAF WORDING WORKS FOR NOW
AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED WHEN CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACT INCREASES.
WINDS WILL BE W TO WNW GENERALLY LESS THEN 10 KT. WINDS COULD MORE
GUSTY /UP TO 30-40 KT/ IF INVOF STRONGER TSRA. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THIS WEEKEND...THE ARKLAMISS WILL BE NEAR THE
INTERFACE OF ACTIVE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A HOT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HOT AND HUMID
SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE. WITH THAT SAID...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL TODAY REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
AND POSSIBLE MITIGATING EFFECTS ON HEAT STRESS.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS OVER AR IS CIRCULATING AROUND THE RIDGE
CENTER AND COULD HELP TO PROVIDE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING LATER
THIS MORNING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE ARE IN
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT...AND NONE
OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO.
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...WILL PLAN TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLIER OVER THE UPPER DELTA REGION INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MS...WITH MULT-CELL STORM CLUSTERS/SEGMENTS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE LIGHT AND IT IS HARD
TO IMAGINE THE STORMS GETTING VERY ORGANIZED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT TO ALLOW STORMS TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOREOVER...LOW
LEVEL FLOW/THETA-E ADVECTION MAY ALLOW STORMS TO BACK-BUILD MORE
THAN FORECAST. THIS COULD SLOW THE OVERALL SYSTEM SPEED AND INCREASE
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IN ANY CASE...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH VERTICAL TOTALS ~27 WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ESPECIALLY WHERE THE CONVECTION IS MORE DELAYED.

EVEN WITH EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THE FORECAST
TEMP/DEWPOINT COMBINATIONS YIELD HEAT INDICES NEAR 100-102 DEG F AT
MOST PLACES. WHILE THIS IS A LITTLE LOW FOR MENTION IN THE HAZARD
PRODUCTS...WE EXPECT GREATER HEAT STRESS TO RETURN SUNDAY SO WOULD
RATHER KEEP CONTINUITY AND LEAVE IT GOING FOR TODAY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE INFLUENCE FOR THE ARKLAMISS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BE MORE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS TO SATURDAY
WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN.  /EC/

FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM (MON-SAT)...THE FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON
THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR MON/MON NGT AS THE REGION
UNDERGOES A PATTERN CHANGE. BY MID WEEK...LOOK FOR A MORE QUIET
REGIME WITH LOWER HUMIDITY BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE EVOLVING NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BRING
SOLID PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR MON INTO MON NGT. THIS WILL BE
AS DEEP MOISTURE POOLS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SFC FRONT AND AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SETUP ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS WEEK. SPECIFICS ON STORM TIMING REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST. THE NAM/EURO DEVELOP ACTIVITY EARLIER ON
MON AND CONTINUE SOME SORT OF PRECIP INTO THE NIGHT. THE GFS DELAYS
INITIATION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO MON NGT.
THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE DIFFERENCE SCENARIOS IS THE IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPS AND ULTIMATELY INSTABILITY. THE NAM/EURO HAVE MUCH LESS HOT
CONDITIONS WITH READINGS AROUND 90 FORECAST FOR HIGHS. THE GFS IS
THE HOTTER SOLUTION WITH 94-96. WITH SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE IN PLACE...I WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS AS STRONGER SFC HEATING
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER INSTABILITY. EVEN AS SOME CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
POTENTIAL FOR MON...WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING GRAPHICS OR TEXT IN THE
HWO AS THERE REMAINS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO JUMP ON THIS FOR
DAY 3.

THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL REALLY TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BY TUE WITH
ALL MODELS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL DRY PUSH MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO HELP THE WEAK SFC FRONT TO MAY
HEADWAY WELL INTO THE CWA ON TUE...THEN BRING SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR IN ITS WAKE. PRECIP ACTIVITY ON TUE WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH HALF AND MOST LIKELY EARLY IN THE DAY PERIOD. AS WE GO
INTO AND THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK...THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL RELAX AND
RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS FOR WED/THU ALONG WITH LESS HUMID READINGS. BY
FRI/SAT...A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  74  94  74 /  63  34  48  32
MERIDIAN      94  73  93  73 /  70  39  44  29
VICKSBURG     93  74  93  73 /  65  27  49  24
HATTIESBURG   95  75  94  75 /  59  33  63  34
NATCHEZ       92  74  92  75 /  58  29  54  20
GREENVILLE    90  74  94  75 /  70  24  43  30
GREENWOOD     91  73  94  74 /  70  25  39  28

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
922 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>037-
040>044-047>050-053>056-059>066-072>074-101430-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
922 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WEST MISSISSIPPI...AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND SOME SMALL
HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES IS EXPECTED TODAY OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. THE
PEAK TIME FOR THIS WOULD BE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF
WORKING OUTSIDE IN THESE CONDITIONS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 105 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

MSZ028>033-038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-101430-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-
922 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE HEAT
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE PEAK TIME FOR THIS WOULD BE FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO STAY
HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING OUTSIDE IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 105 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ALLEN

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 115
 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105
 DEGREES FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
HIGH...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 110 TO 114 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 109 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 100 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR ONE TO THREE
 DAYS.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ031-039-046-091935-
NOXUBEE MS-LOWNDES MS-KEMPER MS-
206 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM BIGBEE VALLEY TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAULETTE
AT 206 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN KEMPER...SOUTH CENTRAL LOWNDES AND EASTERN NOXUBEE
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3274 8836 3263 8841 3273 8872 3339 8841
      3335 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 292DEG 9KT 3328 8835 3311 8838
          3292 8852

JA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 W CANTON             32.63N 90.21W
08/09/2014                   MADISON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ON MT ELAM RD

&&

DL

LAZ023-092010-
FRANKLIN LA-
241 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF GILBERT AT 242 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3215 9151 3198 9153 3200 9168 3216 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 281DEG 8KT 3207 9156

MRM