Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
243 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MID 70 DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH MID 90S TEMPS ARE YIELDING CAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND PROLIFIC
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS AT PRESENT. THESE
VALUES...ALONG WITH VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 28 AND DCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG
ARE SERVING TO ENHANCE THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NEAR TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER AR/W TN. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE PRESENT WEATHER
SCENARIO WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
OUTFLOWS FROM THAT CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST TO INITIATE DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THIS INCREASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD BET BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW/MID 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD CAPES FROM 4000-5000 J/KG AS MAXES WARM INTO THE LOW/MID
90S. THESE TEMP/DEWPOINT COMBINATIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO
JUMP TO THE 100-105 RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS IN THE HWO.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON. MID LEVEL HIGH
CENTER...WHICH HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL
TROFFINESS IN THE EAST AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...INSTEAD OF WANING AFTER THE LOSS
OF HEATING. A NICE AIRMASS CHANGE LOOKS POSSIBLE MOVING INTO MID
WEEK./26/

.LONG TERM...FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM (TUE-SAT)...BY MID
WEEK...LOOK FOR A MORE QUIET REGIME WITH LOWER HUMIDITY BEFORE WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL REALLY
TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BY TUE WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL DRY PUSH MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO
HELP THE WEAK SFC FRONT TO MAY HEADWAY WELL INTO THE CWA ON
TUE...THEN BRING SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN ITS WAKE. PRECIP
ACTIVITY ON TUE WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH HALF AND MOST
LIKELY EARLY IN THE DAY PERIOD. AS WE GO INTO AND THROUGH MID/LATE
WEEK...THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL RELAX AND RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR WED/THU ALONG WITH
LESS HUMID READINGS. BY FRI/SAT...A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH MS THIS
AFTN WHICH HAVE RECORDED MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES AT SEVERAL TAF
SITES WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO AMEND ACCORDINGLY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR CENTRAL SITES
NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH KMEI BY 21-22Z AND KHBG LATER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT 09-13Z WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT/NUM TSRA DURING SUNDAY AFTN. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  94  74  94 /  22  40  32  54
MERIDIAN      73  94  72  95 /  36  31  39  53
VICKSBURG     73  94  74  94 /  16  41  29  46
HATTIESBURG   75  94  75  95 /  31  46  21  53
NATCHEZ       73  92  73  93 /  20  49  18  51
GREENVILLE    73  93  75  95 /  16  39  24  43
GREENWOOD     73  93  74  94 /  17  32  27  52

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
922 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>037-
040>044-047>050-053>056-059>066-072>074-101430-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
922 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WEST MISSISSIPPI...AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND SOME SMALL
HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES IS EXPECTED TODAY OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. THE
PEAK TIME FOR THIS WOULD BE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF
WORKING OUTSIDE IN THESE CONDITIONS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 105 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

MSZ028>033-038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-101430-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-
922 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE HEAT
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE PEAK TIME FOR THIS WOULD BE FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO STAY
HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING OUTSIDE IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 105 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ALLEN

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 115
 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105
 DEGREES FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
HIGH...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 110 TO 114 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 109 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 100 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR ONE TO THREE
 DAYS.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 W CANTON             32.63N 90.21W
08/09/2014                   MADISON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ON MT ELAM RD

&&

DL

LAZ023-092010-
FRANKLIN LA-
241 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF GILBERT AT 242 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3215 9151 3198 9153 3200 9168 3216 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 281DEG 8KT 3207 9156

MRM

MSZ049-050-054>056-092015-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-SCOTT MS-RANKIN MS-COPIAH MS-
244 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
244 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM BURNS TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF HARRISVILLE AT 245
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL COPIAH...SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN...EXTREME
SOUTH CENTRAL SCOTT...SIMPSON AND WESTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3196 9017 3212 8986 3223 8948 3179 8947
      3175 9014 3174 9016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 358DEG 31KT 3211 8958 3203 8986
          3191 9008

JA