Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
432 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...

HRRR/LOCAL WRF OUTPUT DISCUSSED THIS MORNING PROVED CORRECT WITH
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS HAVE BEEN MOST
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. DRIER AIR SHOWS UP MUCH
BETTER AT THE SURFACE IN THE CUMULUS FIELD MOVING INTO EXTREME
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAS GOTTEN AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. A FEW
OF THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION COVERAGE TO BE A BIT
MORE LIMITED AND MORE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATEST STEEPER. WITH
SURFACE TEMPS LIKELY TO EXCEED 90F...EXPECT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON A
GRADUAL INCREASE BUT HAVE MADE SLIGHT CUTS TO MAV MOS WHICH STILL HAS
A WARM BIAS...BUT THE BIAS IS NOT AS MUCH GIVEN RECENT DRIER
CONDITIONS. /EC/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
HANGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOULD BE CLEARED OFF
TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING EXTENDING EAST AND
NORTHEAST OUT OF TX AND OLD MEXICO TAKING TEMPORARY HOLD THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE FRIDAY (AND DEFINITELY BY
SATURDAY)...MODEL CONSENSUS PRETTY HIGH THAT THE RIDGE IN OUR AREA
WILL AGAIN RELENT TO ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AROUND NEXT
SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE TYPICALLY HOT
CONSIDERING THE CALENDER DATE...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PERHAPS
AVERAGING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL (WHICH IS RARE FOR THIS SUMMER). BUT
MOISTURE IN THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
PLENTIFUL AND RIDGING ALOFT NOT SUPPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP A LID ON
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ALTHOUGH POPS GENERALLY 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH THE MENTIONED HEAT TO
PUSH PEAK HEAT INDICES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN
MANY LOCALES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT
ADVISORIES BECOMING NECESSARY. AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS GOES...IT APPEARS GARDEN VARIETY SUMMER
CONVECTION (I.E..NOT SEVERE) SHOULD BE THE STORY UNTIL PERHAPS LATE
FRIDAY WHEN LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR START SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE
NORTH AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ENCROACHES. FROM LATE FRIDAY AND
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY (AND PERHAPS EVEN LASTING INTO SUNDAY IN
SOUTHERN ZONES) STORM STRENGTH COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION AS WELL. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN THE HWO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF IMPACT
REACHING THRESHOLDS FOR WARRANTING MENTION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
RANGE.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IT
APPEARS AN ACTIVE PATTER MAY CONTINUE IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR THE BOUNDARY COMING IN SATURDAY TO
PERHAPS STALL NORTH OF THE COAST AND SERVE AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER INITIATION AND TRAVEL FOR A PERIOD OF A FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD SHOULD COOL OFF SOME BUT
HUMIDITY MAY BE TOUGH TO SHAKE IN SOUTHERN ZONES. STAY TUNED TO
LATER FORECASTS AS WE REFINE DETAILS CONCERNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  92  71  93 /  24  10  11  22
MERIDIAN      66  94  69  94 /  21  10  11  18
VICKSBURG     67  91  69  93 /  19  10  10  24
HATTIESBURG   70  94  72  94 /  24  19  13  32
NATCHEZ       68  91  71  91 /  24  19  11  34
GREENVILLE    68  92  71  93 /   5   7   9  19
GREENWOOD     65  92  69  94 /   6   7   9  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
052015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
314 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ037-042145-
ATTALA MS-
423 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOSCIUSKO AT
423 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL ATTALA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3300 8957 3303 8976 3318 8969 3315 8949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 023DEG 8KT 3310 8962

CME

MSZ042-042155-
YAZOO MS-
433 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
433 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF VAUGHAN AT 433 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL YAZOO COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3277 9006 3287 9020 3293 9013 3287 8998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 054DEG 4KT 3288 9004

CME

MSZ061-042155-
FRANKLIN MS-
435 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
435 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCCALL CREEK AT
436 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3153 9082 3161 9072 3159 9063 3141 9063
      3138 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 039DEG 4KT 3154 9066

CME

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