Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Jackson, MS

741 
WWUS54 KJAN 042055
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

MSC049-042130-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-140804T2130Z/
HINDS MS-
355 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL HINDS
COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLINTON...AND
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CLINTON AROUND 400 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING 
WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING KILLS. 
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE 
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3210 9039 3208 9054 3226 9069 3238 9048
      3242 9027 3233 9026 3217 9026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 024DEG 4KT 3233 9029

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

CME

420 
WWUS54 KJAN 042103
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

MSC049-042130-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-140804T2130Z/
HINDS MS-
403 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL HINDS
COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 404 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLINTON...AND
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
HINDS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING 
WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING KILLS. 
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE 
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 9046 3229 9050 3238 9048 3242 9027
      3233 9026 3217 9026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 024DEG 4KT 3232 9029

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

CME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1032 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

.UPDATE...

MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE POPS A BIT FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS WILL BE
NECESSARY TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR NOTED BY LZK/SHV
MORNING RAOBS IN SUBSIDENT FLOW POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG/N OF THE HWY
82 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH AND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PLENTY
OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE/ INSTABILITY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES > 1.75 INCHES AND VERTICAL TOTALS ~ 27 DEG C WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

ALTHOUGH FORCING MECHANISMS ARE SUBTLE...THE HRRR/LOCAL WRF KEY IN
ON A POTENTIAL GREATER AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG/SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND NEAR-TERM
GUIDANCE...WE WILL INCREASE POPS SOME FOR CENTRAL/EAST MS TO THE
NORTH OF I-20. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER THIS MORNING...A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING...FAIRLY STEEP MID/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES....AND HEALTHY
DCAPE. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME CONVECTION IS AGAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SE OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. THIS WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER ABOUT 03Z...CONDITIONS LOOK TO
BE QUIET WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY
FOR SITES THAT RECEIVE PRECIP. /28/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A SHARP SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE HIGHWAY 82 EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHICH IS SHOWN BY LOCAL
AND NATIONAL WRF GUIDANCE. PWATS WILL BE FROM 1.5 NORTH TO 1.8
SOUTH. WE WILL HAVE SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS WITH 50-60 KNOTS OF FLOW
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY SEVERE
STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM STORM MERGERS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES GREATER
1000 AND SOME CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG.

FOR TUESDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS WE START TO
GET SOME HEIGHT RISES. MIDLEVEL DRYING WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS KEEP OUR CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
BY TUESDAY EVENING.

AS FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR TODAY. WENT CLOSE TO
NAM GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY. FOR NIGHTLY
LOWS WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70 FOR TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED WENT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF MAV AND GMOS
GUIDANCE./17/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH HANGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLEARED OFF TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING EXTENDING
EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF TX AND OLD MEXICO TAKING TEMPORARY HOLD
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE FRIDAY (AND DEFINITELY
BY SATURDAY)...MODEL CONSENSUS PRETTY HIGH THAT THE RIDGE IN OUR
AREA WILL AGAIN RELENT TO ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AROUND
NEXT SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE TYPICALLY HOT
CONSIDERING THE CALENDER DATE...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PERHAPS
AVERAGING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL (WHICH IS RARE FOR THIS SUMMER). BUT
MOISTURE IN THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
PLENTIFUL AND RIDGING ALOFT NOT SUPPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP A LID ON
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ALTHOUGH POPS GENERALLY 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH THE MENTIONED HEAT TO
PUSH PEAK HEAT INDICES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN
MANY LOCALES THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT
ADVISORIES BECOMING NECESSARY. AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS GOES...IT APPEARS GARDEN VARIETY SUMMER
CONVECTION (I.E..NOT SEVERE) SHOULD BE THE STORY UNTIL PERHAPS LATE
FRIDAY WHEN LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR START SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE
NORTH AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ENCROACHES. FROM LATE FRIDAY AND
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY (AND PERHAPS EVEN LASTING INTO SUNDAY IN
SOUTHERN ZONES) STORM STRENGTH COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION AS WELL. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN THE HWO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF IMPACT
REACHING THRESHOLDS FOR WARRANTING MENTION IN THE EXTENDED TIME
RANGE.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IT
APPEARS AN ACTIVE PATTER MAY CONTINUE IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR THE BOUNDARY COMING IN SATURDAY TO
PERHAPS STALL NORTH OF THE COAST AND SERVE AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER INITIATION AND TRAVEL FOR A PERIOD OF A FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD SHOULD COOL OFF SOME BUT
HUMIDITY MAY BE TOUGH TO SHAKE IN SOUTHERN ZONES. STAY TUNED TO
LATER FORECASTS AS WE REFINE DETAILS CONCERNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
052015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
314 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ044-042040-
LEAKE MS-
307 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
307 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER CARTHAGE AT 308 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL LEAKE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3266 8943 3267 8965 3278 8966 3282 8943
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 001DEG 6KT 3273 8954

CME

MSZ048-042030-
HINDS MS-
308 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF JACKSON AT 309 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3243 9025 3240 9024 3240 9011 3234 9012
      3232 9015 3229 9016 3229 9018 3227 9018
      3225 9020 3223 9020 3221 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 007DEG 7KT 3233 9015

CME

MSZ043-042045-
MADISON MS-
323 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER CAMERON AT 323 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3268 8984 3277 8999 3285 8990 3281 8974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 039DEG 9KT 3280 8988

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             4 WNW HAZLEHURST        31.89N 90.45W
08/04/2014  E0.75 INCH       COPIAH             MS   PUBLIC

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 32.32N 90.21W
08/04/2014  E0.25 INCH       HINDS              MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL ON GALLATIN STREET NEAR
            INTERSTATE 20 AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 40MPH.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             1 N CARTHAGE            32.76N 89.53W
08/04/2014  E0.25 INCH       LEAKE              MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL JUST NORTH OF CARTHAGE. RELAYED
            VIA MPING.

&&

DCOX