Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A RETROGRADING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE BROKEN OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTWARD DRIFTING LOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING IN
THIS MOIST AIR MASS DESTABILIZES OUR ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE AID OF THE
THE UPPER LOW STILL RESIDING OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION...ALTHOUGH A
BIT FURTHER WEST THAN ON TUESDAY.  JUST AS WE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY...
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION MEANDERING ABOUT...I DID ADJUST HIGHS
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS AS THEY AGAIN PEAK AROUND
THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

MOST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...A FRONT
IS FORECAST TO ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT...OR ANY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION THAT'S ONGOING NEAR IT...COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT MAY IMPEDE UPON MY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES
TOWARD DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE... LOWS WILL AGAIN
FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY....NO BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE
REGION. WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PLANTED OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE ARKLAMISS WILL CONTINUE TO GET FRONTS AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES EVERY FEW DAYS. THIS IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED AMPLE SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STUCK WITH GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOR POPS.

BY THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST STALLED FRONT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
STALL ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION AROUND MONDAY. EACH SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LACKING MUCH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH EACH SYSTEM IS
ALSO DISTANT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN PLENTY OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA NEARLY EVERY DAY. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEMS STAYING TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN RIDGE WAVERING
FURTHER EAST SOME DAYS...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MISS
THE WESTERN ZONES...BASICALLY AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OF COURSE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT POPS RIGHT NOW ARE LOW. BETWEEN EACH FRONT WILL
BE A DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. NOT
ANTICIPATING A PATTERN SHIFT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR
STATUS IF CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN EACH SITES RESPECTED
AERODROME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING
AS CONVECTION WINDS DOWN. THEREAFTER...MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EAST AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL AROUND 14Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  91  71  92 /  20  31  14  19
MERIDIAN      69  91  69  92 /  28  35  19  26
VICKSBURG     69  91  70  92 /  14  23   9  18
HATTIESBURG   70  92  72  93 /  22  36  14  31
NATCHEZ       69  90  70  93 /  13  40  11  23
GREENVILLE    70  92  73  91 /  10  15  11  16
GREENWOOD     70  91  72  91 /  15  23  20  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19/07/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
231845-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
135 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ074-222150-
FORREST MS-
411 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
411 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF MCLAURIN AND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CITY OF
HATTIESBURG AT 409 PM CDT...MOVING SLOWLY WEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RAINFALL RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND HOUR APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IF
THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS FURTHER AND MOVES SLOWLY...A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN FORREST COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3117 8935 3139 8935 3143 8928 3143 8915
      3115 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 071DEG 3KT 3123 8921

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NW ELLISVILLE         31.67N 89.30W
07/22/2014                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THERE WAS SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE TO A HOUSE ALONG
            WILLIE HILBUN ROAD

&&

DL

MSZ066-222150-
JONES MS-
420 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER LAUREL AT 420 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL JONES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3155 8923 3171 8927 3176 8913 3161 8904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 054DEG 5KT 3166 8916

CME

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
539 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             GLUCKSTADT              32.52N 90.10W
07/22/2014  E0.50 INCH       MADISON            MS   PUBLIC

&&

DL

MSZ048-222310-
HINDS MS-
539 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
539 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER BYRAM AT 540 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3207 9031 3210 9049 3229 9030 3223 9021
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 038DEG 15KT 3219 9030

CME