Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Jackson, MS

063 
WGUS74 KJAN 222049
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MSC073-091-222200-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0084.000000T0000Z-140722T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION MS-LAMAR MS-
349 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR LAMAR
AND MARION COUNTIES...

AT 349 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED
AREA. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST TWO HOURS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BAXTERVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3101 8949 3101 8950 3101 8951 3100 8955
      3099 8975 3100 8982 3102 8985 3104 8984
      3112 8959 3114 8950

$$

CME

423 
WGUS74 KJAN 222116
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MSC073-091-222126-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0084.000000T0000Z-140722T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION MS-LAMAR MS-
416 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR LAMAR AND MARION
COUNTIES...

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING HAS ENDED.

LAT...LON 3101 8949 3101 8950 3101 8951 3100 8955
      3099 8975 3100 8982 3102 8985 3104 8984
      3112 8959 3114 8950

$$

CME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD CORE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
ARKLAMISS FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.  DEEPER
MOISTURE FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
LOOKS TO YIELD CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY WERE AN AXIS OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO EXIST.  PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES CLIMBING BACK
UP TO THE 1.75-2.00 INCH RANGE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KNOTS AND ADVERTISED 30
KNOTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR COULD AID IN SOME HEALTHY CORES THIS AFTERNOON
THAT'LL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE LASTEST BATCH
OF HIGH-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS TREND AS THEIR
CONVECTIVE OUTPUT IS A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.

THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...ASIDE FROM THE
TYPICAL HOURLY TRENDS...IS TO INCREASE POPS IN AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.  OTHERWISE...REMAINING
ELEMENTS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOOON...
BUT NO MORE THAN VICINITY EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN GTR AND MEI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AS CONVECTION WINDS
DOWN. THEREAFTER...MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EAST AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
EVERYWHERE WILL BE THE RULE UNTIL AROUND 14Z. /26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE ARKLAMISS
WILL BE A CLOSED COLD CORE LOW MIGRATING WESTWARD FROM AL INTO MS.
THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN MS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE
55 CORRIDOR AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATES CAPE VALUES PEAKING IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING TWO INCHES - AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
STRETCHING NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT VARIES IN
COVERAGE BUT THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO
SUPPORT MULTI-CELL STORM CLUSTERS ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES WITH STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE MOVEMENT OF STORMS
IN THIS FLOW PATTERN WOULD INCREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND HAVE
RAISED POPS SOME FOR TODAY.

EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MIGRATION OVERNIGHT AND BETTER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD SET UP FARTHER WEST WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE
SHIFTED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION - A LITTLE MORE THAN MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR WEDNESDAY AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY
ONCE AGAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE GREATER INFLUENCE ON ARKLAMISS WEATHER MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO MAINTAIN
SOME CONTINUITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS THAT COULD HELP TO SEND SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN EXPECTED INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /EC/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY TO TUESDAY. SO FAR...NO BIG PATTERN CHANGE FOR
THE REGION. WITH THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PLANTED OVER THE
ROCKIES...THE ARKLAMISS WILL CONTINUE TO GET FRONTS AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES EVERY FEW DAYS. THE MOS CONTINUES TO BOUNCE AROUND WITH
THE TEMPERATURES. PERHAPS LEANING MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THE TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED ARE BACK INTO THE UPPER
90S/MID 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
HEAT STRESS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. STUCK WITH
GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

BY THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LATEST STALLED FRONT WILL BE
REPLACED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO
STALL ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION AROUND MONDAY. EACH SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LACKING MUCH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WITH EACH SYSTEM IS
ALSO DISTANT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN PLENTY OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE GULF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA NEARLY EVERY DAY. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEMS STAYING TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN RIDGE WAVERING
FURTHER EAST SOME DAYS...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MISS
THE WESTERN ZONES...BASICALLY AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OF COURSE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT POPS RIGHT NOW ARE LOW. BETWEEN EACH FRONT WILL
BE A DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. NOT
ANTICIPATING A PATTERN SHIFT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  71  91  71 /  46  32  34  22
MERIDIAN      88  69  91  69 /  60  39  28  23
VICKSBURG     90  70  92  71 /  20  20  34  22
HATTIESBURG   90  70  92  71 /  60  25  26  21
NATCHEZ       89  70  90  71 /  21  15  38  20
GREENVILLE    92  72  93  73 /  16  12  24  27
GREENWOOD     91  71  91  72 /  25  21  29  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
231845-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
135 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
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   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ065-066-074-221850-
JONES MS-FORREST MS-COVINGTON MS-
105 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
105 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF EASTABUCHIE
AT 106 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON...NORTHERN FORREST AND
SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3128 8929 3146 8944 3159 8919 3144 8907
      3143 8909 3143 8913 3139 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 054DEG 5KT 3146 8922

GRG

MSZ073-074-221925-
LAMAR MS-FORREST MS-
142 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
142 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER BROOKLYN AT 142 PM CDT...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN FORREST AND SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3091 8935 3100 8935 3100 8941 3097 8943
      3097 8947 3101 8951 3100 8955 3100 8964
      3101 8965 3116 8915 3114 8914 3097 8913
      3090 8928
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 066DEG 19KT 3104 8921

GRG

MSZ065-066-222010-
JONES MS-COVINGTON MS-
240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
240 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF SOSO AT 240 PM CDT...
MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL COVINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3154 8943 3175 8950 3180 8923 3162 8917
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 074DEG 4KT 3168 8930

GRG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     HAIL             LUMBERTON               31.00N 89.45W
07/22/2014  E0.75 INCH       LAMAR              MS   PUBLIC

&&

DL