Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
429 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ACTIVE PERIOD ONGOING AND EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
STORM COMPLEXES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION BELOW WILL ATTEMPT TO FINE TUNE TIMING AND HAZARDS.

SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL RIDGING EROSION HAS OCCURRED DUE TO NUMEROUS
TRAVERSING S/WV IMPULSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A
MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE MCS PARADE FOR THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TSTORMS FIRED IN NE ZONES OFF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT HAVE
STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY POSSIBLY OWING TO WEAKER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL S/WV RIDGING AFFECTS. FEEL AREAS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY IN EAST MS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PER LATEST HRRR.
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES WESTWARD TOWARDS AR/LA WHERE A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS S NEARING THE MS RIVER. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LINE WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER H5 FLOW
OF 40 KT AND BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG A PVA RIBBON SHOULD
SUPPORT THE ADDITIONAL TSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTN THROUGH EVENING
IN AR AND OVERSPREAD INTO MID AND NORTH MS. CONVERGENT/DIVERGENT
COUPLETS IN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR /150-200 MS/S2
0-1 KM SRH/ AND MLCAPE >1000 J/KG SUGGESTS A STRONGER MASS SIGNAL
THEN DAYS PAST HAVE THUS INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO SIZE OF GOLFBALLS COULD
OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. HAVE PLACED ELEVATED WORDING IN
HWO/GRAPHICS FOR TONIGHT IN THE DELTA REGION.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AS TONIGHT'S TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE NE. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL
REBUILD ONCE AGAIN FOR ISO/SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING
ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH WILL EJECT OFF A LARGER PARENT TROUGH AND AID IN
INCREASED LOW-LVL SHEAR WITH MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG AND 27-28 C
VERTICAL TOTALS COINCIDENT WITH ANOTHER STRONG MASS SIGNAL AND THUS
LIKELY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED MCS FOR THE MS DELTA
REGION AND ACROSS THE 82 CORRIDOR. HAVE PLACED LIMITED RISK IN
HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH
THIS EPISODE AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NW DELTA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STARTING THIS TIME PERIOD.

TUESDAY'S WEATHER IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING FROM MONDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM STALLS/LINGERS IN
WEST...SOME STRONG/SEVERE COULD OCCUR IN EAST AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH TUES AFTN WITH ADVANCEMENT OF AN ACTUAL FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE PLACED A LIMITED RISK IN
WEST AND PORTIONS OF EAST BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE REFINED NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND COULD AFFECT KGLH/KGWO/KGTR
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING MORE MVFR CEILINGS OR VIS AND
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  89  72  85 /  45  34  46  70
MERIDIAN      69  90  71  86 /  42  22  36  72
VICKSBURG     71  88  71  85 /  63  41  57  68
HATTIESBURG   72  92  72  88 /  30  19  25  71
NATCHEZ       71  88  73  84 /  41  37  47  69
GREENVILLE    70  85  70  83 /  88  57  79  72
GREENWOOD     70  87  71  84 /  79  51  74  71

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-092045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. A WEAK FRONT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL HELP FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

LAZ024>026-MSZ026-028>033-036>039-042>053-060-092045-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-ADAMS-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN
HAZARDS BEING 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

LAZ015-016-023-092045-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN
HAZARDS BEING 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MSZ054>059-061>066-072>074-092045-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

MSZ027-092045-
CARROLL-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. A WEAK FRONT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL HELP FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ028-029-032-082210-
WEBSTER MS-MONTGOMERY MS-CHOCTAW MS-
426 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
426 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EUPORA AT 426 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CHOCTAW...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3359 8913 3339 8909 3335 8939 3352 8943
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 258DEG 14KT 3345 8931

DC

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MSZ028-029-082340-
WEBSTER MS-MONTGOMERY MS-
610 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
610 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF KILMICHAEL AT 610
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3368 8952 3356 8935 3341 8954 3351 8971
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 221DEG 20KT 3351 8957

DC