Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1050 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.UPDATE...

POPS WERE ELEVATED IN THE NEAR TERM FOR OUTFLOW SUPPORTED STORMS IN
DELTA REGION ALONG WITH HOURLY ELEMENT ADJUSTMENTS FROM SAID
OUTFLOW. KEPT HWO/GRAPHICS INTACT GIVEN LATEST ANALYSIS BUT SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL.

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT MCS COMPLEXES THAT DEVELOPED IN OK/TX/AR AND A SEPARATE
ONE IN TN HAVE PLACED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
AND DELTA AREAS WITH ANOTHER ONE IN THE ARKLATEX. THESE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN
BEFORE A POSSIBLE/LIKELY MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING NORTH OF I-20. VISIBLE SATELLITE/SFC OBS SHOW OUTFLOW
IN DELTA MOVING SE INTERSECTING WITH ANOTHER EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
BOUNDARY ALONG 82 CORRIDOR. MODIFIED 12Z KJAN SOUNDINGS INDICATE
3000-4000 J/KG SBCAPE WITH SUPPORTIVE VERTICAL TOTALS /27 C/ WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT. BEST COMBO OF PARAMETERS IN RELATION
TO OUTFLOW POSITIONS WILL FAVOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE NW 2/3RD
OF REGION WITH FAR SE MS CLOSER TO LOW-RIDGE CENTER. INITIALLY TOYED
WITH THE THE IDEA OS SHIFTING AREA NORTHWARD BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF
BOUNDARY INTERACTION, HAVE LEFT CURRENT HWO/GRAPHICS INTACT. HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK AS LOW-LVL HELICITY VALUES
WILL BE <50 M2/S2.

A MORE ORGANIZED BROKEN TO LINEAR COMPLEX LOOKS PROBABLE TO DEVELOP
IN TANDEM WITH A STRONGER S/WV IMPULSE PASSAGE WITH INCREASED LOW-LVL
SHEAR AND LOCALIZED H7-H5 WIND FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO THE RISK OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 WHERE GREATER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE DELTA REGION PER 00Z/08
SSEO OUTPUT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ROUND. OVERALL RISK WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING AS IMPULSE SHIFT
NORTH OF REGION. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SITES THIS MORNING STILL SEEING MVFR CEILINGS BUT THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z AS
AFTERNOON STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS. A COMPLEX OF STORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST MS
ALONG A KMEM/KGTR LINE WITH ISOLATED CELLS STILL PERIODICALLY TRYING
TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...OLD PERSISTENT QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS N TX/SE OK/N AR.

INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
A MEMORY THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW REGIME
CONTINUE TO EFFECTIVELY EAT AWAY AT ITS NORTHERN EDGE. THIS PROCESS
HAS FINALLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA FIRMLY INTO THIS FLOW REGIME AND
IN A POSITION TO BE MORE EASILY IMPACTED BY UPSTREAM ENERGY.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT EXITING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL GIVE THE OLD BOUNDARY A PUSH
SOUTH TODAY. ITS INTERACTION WITH THE OLD OUTFLOW AND CAPES
FROM 3000-4000 J/KG WILL EASILY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AS WELL AS INCREASED FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM 35-40 KNOTS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH VERTICAL
TOTALS NEAR 30.

BOUNDARY LOOKS TO TURN AROUND AND JUMP BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. NOT IMMEDIATELY CONCERNED ABOUT MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER N MS
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT SEEM TO GET STRONG ENOUGH.
HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE OVER AR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
COULD EASILY SPILL INTO THE DELTA REGION PRIOR TO DAWN MONDAY. THESE
STORMS COULD STILL POSE A PROBLEM AS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL
REMAIN 35-40 KNOTS ALIGNED WITH THE BOUNDARY.

EMPHASIS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE WEST ON MONDAY. WHILE DO EXPECT
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BEST SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL
EXIST OVER AR/LA AS A POTENT MID LEVEL COLD CORE LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A RATHER POTENT SQUALL LINE LOOKS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT IN AR AND APPROACH THE ARK-LA-MISS DELTA
REGION PRIOR TO DAWN. WHILE STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THE LINE...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE PROBABLE GIVEN DECENT
AMBIENT LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THIS ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...HOWEVER MORE SO TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.  MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL
APPROACH AND SWING EAST THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM
FOR CONVECTION COULD MAKE A PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME.  THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AGAIN SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STORMS...A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS... SNEAKING INTO THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE WANING IN INTENSITY DUE TO
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS AND ASCENT DEPARTING...THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST OVER MY NORTHWEST ZONES TUESDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN SLOWING AND WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN HANGING UP
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT'LL BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS MY WEST...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS.  THIS WILL BE AS A
RESULT OF THE FRONT SLOWING AND INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN
THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.  THIS...
COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
LOOKS TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS TIME.  I'LL INTRODUCE THIS
POTENTIAL INTO THE HWO THIS MORNING.  HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL AND LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUT THE CWA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE.  WHILE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS CONTINUED VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AGAIN YIELD
COMPLEXES OF STORMS THAT'LL PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...THESE COULD BRUSH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THESE
COMPLEXES WILL ALSO LIKELY LEAVE BEHIND SOME SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD ALSO AFFECT AND/OR ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE
CWA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  71  90  73 /  39  38  29  47
MERIDIAN      91  70  90  71 /  42  41  24  20
VICKSBURG     89  71  89  72 /  42  43  36  63
HATTIESBURG   94  72  91  72 /  30  30  20  20
NATCHEZ       89  72  88  72 /  29  31  24  42
GREENVILLE    88  71  89  71 /  52  70  50  63
GREENWOOD     88  70  89  73 /  47  67  41  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/28/26/19

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MSZ033-081735-
OKTIBBEHA MS-
1153 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1153 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER LONGVIEW AT 1154 AM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL OKTIBBEHA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3336 8900 3353 8899 3354 8867 3350 8867
      3332 8867
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 271DEG 20KT 3344 8892

JC

MSZ032-033-081805-
OKTIBBEHA MS-CHOCTAW MS-
1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1223 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHESTER AT 1223
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND SOUTHWESTERN OKTIBBEHA COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3329 8895 3332 8941 3346 8939 3347 8937
      3348 8933 3349 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 275DEG 18KT 3340 8929

JC

MSZ031-039-081835-
NOXUBEE MS-LOWNDES MS-
1256 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1256 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BENT OAK AT
1257 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN LOWNDES AND NORTHEASTERN NOXUBEE COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3328 8830 3324 8831 3323 8869 3329 8868
      3329 8867 3345 8867 3345 8866 3345 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 281DEG 19KT 3336 8847

JC