Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Jackson, MS

Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Warren County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
931 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

..PERIODS OF POTENT STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING...

.UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE DELTA LOOKS GOOD WHERE WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 MPH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE. /BK/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON THE
SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHICH WILL COME IN TWO PHASES. FIRST ROUND
WILL BE LATER TONIGHT WITH MORE ACTIVITY ON MONDAY (ESPECIALLY THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING).

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LOOK FOR A MIX OF LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. STRONGER
WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NW DELTA AND A WIND ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED.

FOR THE ACTIVE PERIOD (AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVE)...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND SHOW A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION TO WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED WITH THE DUAL S/WV FEATURES
DRIVING THE EVENTS. WHAT IS NEW IS THE MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS
HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. IT IS THIS DATA THAT IS HELPING
US SORT THROUGH THE LARGER PICTURE AND COME UP WITH A EVOLUTION TO
THE CONVECTION AND WHAT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL...THIS WILL BE
A COMPLEX SITUATION AND THE SECOND EVENT FOR MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DRIVEN BY WHAT HAS OCCURRED FROM THE FIRST EVENT AND MESOSCALE
EVOLUTION IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

THE FIRST EVENT...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STRONG CAP WILL KEEP
THE ARE QUIET UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE LEAD S/WV
COMBINES WITH THE NORTHWARD SURGING MOIST AXIS. FIGURING OUT WHAT
VALUE OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO UTILIZE IS A BIG
CHALLENGE. SOME OF THE GUID SUGGESTS THE W HALF WILL HAVE SBCAPE OF
600-1000 J/KG WHILE OTHERS ARE MORE TAME AND ONLY OFFER 200-600
J/KG. OBSERVED INSTABILITY ON THE LOW END OF THAT RANGE WILL KEEP
STORM MORE ON THE STRONG SIDE (I PREFER SOMETHING IN BETWEEN). WIND
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2 AND
SOLID DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50 KTS. THE VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
A MIXED-MODE EVENT WITH SOME SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH SOME BOWING
CLUSTERS DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR W AND MOVING GENERALLY NE. THERE IS
ALSO INDICATIONS THAT A SE PUSHING LARGE BOWING FEATURE WILL MOVE
OUT OF AR AND INTERACT WITH THE NE EVOLVING CLUSTER. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH A SECONDARY THREAT
OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL. I WOULD ALSO LIKE TO NOTE THAT A STRONG
TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF ANY STORM CAN OCCUR IN AN AREA
OF HIGHER CAPE. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW
AND WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK PRODUCTS. THE MAIN
TIME FOR THIS WILL BE FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM.

BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND GETS GOING...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME
BACKBUILDING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. IT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME
WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. MY BEST GUESS ON THIS
IS BETWEEN 6-10AM FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO E-CENTRAL AND NE MS.

THE LEFT OVER SFC REGIME WILL LIKELY BE VERY COMPLEX WITH A COUPLE
SFC BOUNDARIES LINGERING OVER THE AREA. THESE WILL SERVE AS KEY
FOCUS POINTS FOR LATER IN THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST TO OUR W WILL
BE ONE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VERY JUICY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AND LITTLE SFC
HEATING WILL YIELD SBCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. LITTLE TO NO CAP WILL
BE PRESENT AND WITH STEADILY INCREASING ASCENT FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
EVENING...LOOK FOR STORMS TO EASILY DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE.
INITIALLY THE MORE SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS. ONE ELEMENT THAT HAS
CHANGED FROM PREV OUTLOOKS IS THAT SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE SE/E PORTIONS DURING THE DAY. DUE TO
THIS...A LIMITED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST ON MONDAY FOR THOSE
AREAS. BY FAR...THE MAIN THREATS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
MORE STORMS JUST ADD TO THE TOTALS FROM THE EARLIER EVENT. EVENT
TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES SEEM TO FIT WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
3-5 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ELEVATED
FLOODING THREAT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT WILL FEEL A MORE FOCUSED
AREA CAN NOW BE HIGHLIGHTED WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE MORE LIKELY.

LASTLY...MUCH MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT MON EVE
AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP SOME 20-25 DEGREES QUICKLY WITH LOWS
ON THEIR WAY TO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE. /CME/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 925 MB TEMPS POURING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN
EASTERN ZONES OF MS SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS TEMPORARILY EXITING AS WELL. HOWEVER...COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD DRIVE
PATCHY STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIMIT
SUNSHINE A BIT. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AND BITING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING ALL BUT PERHAPS SOUTHEAST MS
LOCATIONS NOT REACHING THE 60 MARK IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD NIGHT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE SLIDES DOWN INTO OUR REGION AND
SHUTS DOWN NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. THE
CONSENSUS OF MODEL OUTPUT STATISTIC TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS HAS
AGAIN TRENDED COLDER...WITH READINGS BY DAWN LIKELY RANGING FROM 30
TO 35 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FROST FORMATION IN MANY AREAS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON TENDER EXPOSED VEGETATION. IF A FREEZE IS ACHIEVED AT THE
JACKSON AIRPORT IT WILL BE THE SECOND LATEST SPRING FREEZE ON
RECORD. IN THE BELOW CLIMATE SECTION MORE COMPREHENSIVE FREEZE
RECORD VERSUS FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE GIVEN. WE WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF THIS HAZARD IN GRAPHICS AND THE HWO.

CONDITIONS WILL THANKFULLY BE WARMING UP ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THURSDAY TO MAKE IT BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF APRIL. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOME
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY AGAIN DIGS A BIT
BACK TO OUR WEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL AND A FAIR NUMBER OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STILL SEEM TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN RESOLVING THIS NEXT BATCH OF
INCOMING TROUGH ENERGY IN SIZABLE RAIN CHANCES OVER AN EXTENDED
PERIOD FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONVERSELY...THE MORE
TRUSTWORTHY LONG RANGE MODEL PERFORMER WHICH IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL
IS NOT IS NOT SO GUNG HO. PART OF THE REASON (BEYOND PAST
PERFORMANCE LOGIC) TO THINK THE EURO HAS THE RIGHT IDEA IS THAT THE
INCOMING TROUGH SEEMS TO BE LOOSELY LINKED TO A GLOBAL EQUATORIAL
OSCILLATION AND TRIGGERING A BULK OF CONVECTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR NOW I CUT BACK
MEX (GFS-BASED) POPS ALTHOUGH STILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN
IN PLAY.

BEYOND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FORECAST LOOKS MORE MUDDLED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO COME AROUND WITH NO
PROSPECT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER. /BB/

&&

.CLIMATE...

STATION//4/16 FORECAST LOW//DAILY RECORD(DATE)//LATEST FREEZE

JAN    //       34        //     33 (1983)    //  4/25/1910
MEI    //       30        //     32 (2007)    //  4/25/1910
GLH    //       35        //     32 (1926)    //  4/16/1926
GWO    //       31        //     35 (2007)    //  4/15/2008
TVR    //       33        //     33 (2007)    //  4/21/1953
HBG    //       34        //     34 (1950)    //  4/15/1950

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR-VFR CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
17Z. THE ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NW SITES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 22KTS AND GUSTS TO 32KTS. WILL HAVE RESTRICTED CONDITIONS AND
STORM POTENTIAL AFTER 06Z. /17/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  67  78  40 /   9  96  96  80
MERIDIAN      82  65  81  45 /   6  74  99  99
VICKSBURG     81  67  76  39 /  11  97  85  68
HATTIESBURG   82  66  83  46 /   6  62  83  88
NATCHEZ       80  68  77  39 /   9  93  83  70
GREENVILLE    79  65  75  36 /  12  95  83  59
GREENWOOD     82  65  76  37 /  12  97  88  71

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

BK/17

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